French presidential poll tracker 2017

Updated

Emmanuel Macron, an independent pro-European centrist, will become France’s next president, after voters rejected Marine Le Pen in the May 7 run-off.

Emmanuel Macron

En Marche! · Polling at 62%

Socially liberal centrist, pro-business

Marine Le Pen

National Front · Polling at 38%

Far-right leader with populist economic agenda

François Fillon

The Republicans · Polling at 0%

Centre-right conservative, pro deregulation

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Rebellious France · Polling at 0%

Far-left anti-austerity firebrand

Benoît Hamon

Socialist Party · Polling at 0%

Left wing radical advocating a 32h-week

How did the run-off play out?

Second round voting intention (%)

The underlying polls

DatePollsterLe PenMacronSample*
May 5–5Ipsos37%63%8,200
May 2–5Ifop-Fiducial37%63%1,861
May 2–5Harris Interactive38%62%4,619
May 4–4Odoxa38%62%959
Apr 28–4Opinionway38%62%1,500
May 4–4Ipsos38.5%61.5%2,632
May 4–4Elabe38%62%1,009
May 1–4Ifop-Fiducial39%61%1,400
Apr 30–3Ifop-Fiducial40%60%1,405
Apr 28–2Elabe41%59%3,817
May 1–2BVA40%60%1,435
Apr 28–2Ifop-Fiducial40.5%59.5%1,388
Apr 30–1Cevipof Ipsos - Sopra Steria41%59%13,742
Apr 28–30Kantar Sofores - OnePoint41%59%1,539
Apr 28–29Ipsos40%60%1,504
Apr 26–28BVA41%59%1,438
Apr 23–27Opinionway40%60%1,500
Apr 25–27Harris Interactive39%61%940
Apr 26–27Odoxa41%59%968
Apr 23–27Opinionway40%60%1,500
Apr 24–27Ifop-Fiducial39.5%60.5%1,407
Apr 24–24Elabe36%64%967
Apr 23–24Ifop-Fiducial40%60%846
Apr 23–23Ipsos38%62%2,024
Apr 23–23Harris Interactive36%64%2,684
Apr 17–21Opinionway36%64%1,500
Apr 18–21Ifop-Fiducial39.5%60.5%2,823
Apr 21–21Odoxa38%62%953
Apr 17–20Ifop-Fiducial39%61%2,810
Apr 18–20Harris Interactive33%67%962
Apr 19–20Elabe35%65%1,445
Apr 18–19Harris Interactive34%66%2,812
Apr 18–19BVA35%65%1,427
Apr 13–17Ifop-Fiducial40%60%2,796
Apr 14–17Kantar Sofores - OnePoint39%61%1,530
Apr 16–17Cevipof Ipsos - Sopra Steria39%61%11,601
Apr 16–17Elabe38%62%1,438
Apr 13–15Scan Research - Le Terrain29%71%1,135
Apr 12–14BVA36%64%1,439
Apr 11–14Ifop-Fiducial41%59%2,776
Apr 7–13OpinionWay38%62%1,500
Apr 11–13Harris Interactive33%67%904
Apr 12–13Odoxa39%61%950
Apr 12–13Ipsos37%63%1,509
Apr 11–12Elabe35%65%1,010
Apr 7–11Ifop-Fiducial41.5%58.5%2,806
Apr 9–10Elabe36%64%1,002
Apr 7–9Ipsos38%62%1,604
Apr 5–7Kantar Sofores - OnePoint39%61%1,515
Apr 5–7BVA39%61%1,421
Apr 1–6OpinionWay38%62%1,500
Apr 3–6Ifop-Fiducial40%60%2,243
Apr 5–6Harris Interactive37%63%928
Apr 5–5Odoxa39%61%955
Apr 5–5Elabe38%62%995
Mar 30–3Ifop-Fiducial40%60%2,232
Mar 31–2Cevipof Ipsos - Sopra Steria39%61%14,300
Mar 24–30OpinionWay37%63%1,500
Mar 29–30BVA40%60%1,418
Mar 29–30Odoxa41%59%969
Mar 26–29Ifop-Fiducial40%60%2,241
Mar 28–29Elabe37%63%998
Mar 23–27Scan Research - Le Terrain30%70%769
Mar 25–27Ipsos38%62%1,005
Mar 21–24Ifop-Fiducial38.5%61.5%2,225
Mar 22–24BVA38%62%1,431
Mar 17–23OpinionWay37%63%1,500
Mar 21–22Harris Interactive35%65%6,383
Mar 21–21Elabe36%64%997
Mar 18–21Ifop-Fiducial39.5%60.5%1,695
Mar 17–19Elabe37%63%2,847
Mar 15–17BVA38%62%1,425
Mar 10–16OpinionWay41%59%1,500
Mar 15–16Odoxa36%64%964
Mar 12–15Ifop-Fiducial38.5%61.5%1,399
Mar 14–15Cevipof Ipsos - Sopra Steria39%61%11,990
Mar 9–13Ifop-Fiducial39.5%60.5%1,397
Mar 8–10BVA39%61%1,419
Mar 7–10Ifop-Fiducial39.5%60.5%1,379
Mar 3–9OpinionWay35%65%1,500
Mar 6–8Harris Interactive35%65%4,533
Mar 3–7Ifop-Fiducial38.5%61.5%1,390
Mar 5–6Elabe40%60%1,000
Mar 1–5Cevipof Ipsos - Sopra Steria38%62%15,887
Feb 27–3Opinionway38%62%1,500
Feb 28–2BVA38%62%1,413
Feb 28–2Elabe38%62%1,507
Feb 21–24Ifop-Fiducial38.5%61.5%1,417
Feb 23–24Kantar Sofores - OnePoint42%58%1,005
Feb 20–24Opinionway39%61%1,500
Feb 22–23Odoxa39%61%920
Feb 20–22Harris Interactive40%60%5,249
Feb 17–21Ifop-Fiducial39%61%1,386
Feb 19–20BVA39%61%940
Feb 13–17Opinionway40%60%1,500
Feb 9–13Ifop-Fiducial38%62%1,392
Feb 3–9Opinionway35%65%1,500
Feb 6–9Ifop-Fiducial37%63%1,407
Feb 7–8Elabe37%63%961
Feb 2–6Ifop-Fiducial37%63%1,433
Feb 1–2BVA34%66%955
Jan 29–1Ifop-Fiducial37%63%1,409
Jan 30–31Elabe35%65%993
Jan 26–27Kantar Sofores - OnePoint35%65%1,032
Jan 20–20Ipsos36%64%1,443
Jan 3–6Ifop-Fiducial35%65%1,860
Source: FT Research

How did the first round play out?

After a series of set-backs for Francois Fillon and the unexpected rise of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the first round saw Macron and Le Pen qualify to the run-off. Unlike polls’ high-profile failures in several other countries’ recent elections, the French polls proved highly accurate in the first round.

The chart above displays the five leading presidential candidates who contested the first round. Three other candidates for whom polls were available are Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Nathalie Arthaud and Philippe Poutou. The three consistently polled at 3 per cent or below.

The underlying polls

DatePollsterMacronLe PenFillonMélenchonHamonSample*
Apr 21–21Odoxa24.5%23%19%19%7.5%953
Apr 18–21Ifop-Fiducial24.5%22.5%19.5%18.5%7%2,823
Apr 17–21OpinionWay23%22%21%18%8%1,500
Apr 19–20Ipsos Sopra-Steria24%22%19%19%7.5%2,048
Apr 17–20Ifop-Fiducial24%22.5%19.5%18.5%7%2,810
Apr 19–20Elabe24%21.5%20%19.5%7%1,445
Apr 18–20Harris Interactive24.5%21%20%19%7.5%962
Apr 18–19Harris Interactive25%22%19%19%7.5%2,812
Apr 18–19BVA24%23%19%19%8.5%1,427
Apr 13–17Ifop-Fiducial23%22.5%19.5%19.5%7.5%2,796
Apr 14–17Kantar Sofores - OnePoint24%23%18.5%18%8%1,530
Apr 16–17Cevipof Ipsos - Sopra Steria23%22.5%19.5%19%8%11,601
Apr 16–17Elabe24%23%19.5%18%8%1,438
Apr 13–15Scan Research - Le Terrain24%21.5%17.5%22%8%1,135
Apr 14–15Ifop-Fiducial23%22%19%19.5%8%1,851
Apr 11–14Ifop-Fiducial22.5%23%19%19%8%2,776
Apr 12–14BVA23%22%20%20%7.5%1,439
Apr 7–13OpinionWay22%23%20%17%9%1,500
Apr 11–13Harris Interactive24%22%20%19%8%904
Apr 12–13Odoxa24.5%23%18.5%19%8%950
Apr 12–13Ipsos22%22%19%20%7.5%1,509
Apr 11–12Elabe23.5%22.5%20%18.5%9%1,010
Apr 7–11Ifop-Fiducial23%24%19%18.5%8.5%2,806
Apr 9–10Elabe23%23%19%17%10%1,002
Apr 7–9Ipsos24%24%18%18.5%8%1,604
Apr 7–8Ifop-Fiducial pour Paris Match et Sud Radio23%24%18.5%19%8%1,845
Apr 5–7BVA23%23%19%19%8.5%1,421
Apr 5–7Kantar Sofores - OnePoint24%24%17%18%9%1,515
Apr 5–6Harris Interactive24%23%19%18%9%928
Apr 1–6OpinionWay24%25%20%16%10%1,500
Apr 3–6Ifop-Fiducial24%24.5%18.5%16.5%9.5%2,243
Apr 3–5Harris Interactive25%24%18%17%9%5,736
Apr 5–5Odoxa23.5%23%18.5%18%9%955
Apr 5–5Elabe23.5%23.5%19%17%9%995
Mar 30–3Ifop-Fiducial26%25.5%17%15%10%2,232
Mar 31–2Cevipof Ipsos - Sopra Steria25%25%17.5%15%10%14,300
Mar 24–30OpinionWay24%24%19%15%11%1,500
Mar 29–30Odoxa26%25%17%16%8%969
Mar 29–30BVA25%24%19%15%11.5%1,418
Mar 26–29Ifop-Fiducial26%25.5%17.5%14%10%2,241
Mar 28–29Elabe25.5%24%18%15%10%998
Mar 25–27Ipsos24%25%18%14%12%1,005
Mar 23–27Scan Research - Le Terrain24.5%24%15.5%19.5%9%769
Mar 21–24Ifop-Fiducial26%25%18%13%10.5%2,225
Mar 22–24BVA26%25%17%14%11.5%1,431
Mar 17–23OpinionWay24%25%19%14%11%1,500
Mar 21–22Harris Interactive26%25%18%13.5%12.5%6,383
Mar 18–21Ifop-Fiducial25.5%26%17.5%11.5%11.5%1,695
Mar 21–21Elabe26%24.5%17%13.5%11.5%997
Mar 17–19Elabe25.5%25%17.5%13%13.5%2,847
Mar 15–17Kantar Sofores - OnePoint26%26%17%12%12%1,508
Mar 15–17BVA25%26%19.5%12%12.5%1,425
Mar 10–16OpinionWay25%28%20%11%12%1,500
Mar 15–16Odoxa26.5%26%19%10.5%12.5%964
Mar 12–15Ifop-Fiducial25.5%26.5%18.5%11.5%13.5%1,399
Mar 14–15Cevipof Ipsos - Sopra Steria26%27%17.5%11.5%12.5%11,990
Mar 9–13Ifop-Fiducial25%26.5%19%11.5%14%1,397
Mar 7–10Ifop-Fiducial25.5%26%19.5%12%13.5%1,379
Mar 8–10BVA26%26%20%11.5%13.5%1,419
Mar 3–9OpinionWay26%26%20%11%14%1,500
Mar 6–8Harris Interactive26%25%20%12%13%4,533
Mar 3–7Ifop-Fiducial25%26%19%11.5%14%1,390
Mar 5–6Elabe25.5%26%19%12%13.5%1,000
Mar 2–6Ifop-Fiducial25.5%26.5%19%11.5%13.5%1,381
Mar 1–5Cevipof Ipsos - Sopra Steria25%27%17.5%11.5%14%15,887
Mar 2–4Ifop-Fiducial25.5%26.5%18.5%12%14%1,822
Mar 2–4Kantar Sofores - OnePoint22.5%26.5%17%11.5%14.5%1,027
Mar 3–27OpinionWay24%27%19%11%15%1,500
Feb 28–3Ifop-Fiducial24.5%27%20%11%14%1,383
Feb 28–2Elabe24%27%19%12.5%12.5%1,507
Mar 1–2Odoxa26%24.8%19%9%12.5%943
Feb 26–1Ifop-Fiducial24%25.5%21%11%14%1,392
Feb 24–28Ifop-Fiducial24%25.5%20.5%11.5%14%1,398
Feb 21–24Ifop-Fiducial23.5%26%20.5%11%13%1,417
Feb 23–24Kantar Sofores - OnePoint25%27%20%10%14%1,005
Feb 22–23Odoxa25%27%19%12%13%920
Feb 20–22Harris Interactive20%25%21%13%14%5,249
Feb 20–22OpinionWay22%26%21%11%13%1,615
Feb 17–21Ifop-Fiducial19%26%19%11.5%14%1,386
Feb 17–20Ifop-Fiducial22%25.5%20%12%15.5%1,838
Feb 18–20Elabe17.8%27.5%20.5%12.5%12.5%995
Feb 19–20BVA21%27.5%19%10.5%17%940
Feb 14–16Ifop-Fiducial19.5%26%18.5%11%14%1,396
Feb 14–16OpinionWay21%26%20%12%16%1,602
Feb 9–13Ifop-Fiducial19.5%26%18%11.5%14.5%1,392
Feb 9–13OpinionWay22%26%21%11%15%1,422
Feb 7–12Cevipof Ipsos - Sopra Steria21.5%25.5%18%11.8%14.3%15 874
Feb 5–8Ifop-Fiducial21%26%18%10.5%14.5%1,409
Feb 6–8OpinionWay21%24%20%13%16%1,454
Feb 7–8Elabe22.8%25.8%17.5%12.5%15.3%961
Feb 6–8Harris Interactive21%24%19%12%14%5,432
Feb 2–6Ifop-Fiducial20.5%25.5%18.5%10%15.5%1,433
Feb 3–5OpinionWay23%26%20%11%14%1,700
Feb 1–2BVA21.5%25%19%11.3%16.5%646
Jan 29–1Ifop-Fiducial20%24%21%9%18%1,409
Jan 30–31Elabe22.5%26.5%19.5%10%16.5%993
Jan 26–27Kantar Sofores - OnePoint20.5%25%21.5%10%15%1,032
Jan 20–20Ipsos19.3%27%25.7%14%7%1,443
Jan 10–15Cevipof Ipsos - Sopra Steria19.4%25.6%24.2%14%6%15,921
Jan 6–8BVA19%25.5%24%12.8%6%946
Jan 3–6Ifop-Fiducial18.8%26.1%24.5%12%6%1,860
Jan 3–4Elabe21%23.1%25.3%13.9%6%995
Dec 2–7Cevipof Ipsos - Sopra Steria15.5%24.5%27.3%13.5%N/A18,013
Dec 2–4BVA16.5%24.7%25.3%14.7%N/A934
Dec 2–3Ifop-Fiducial15.2%24%27.8%12.8%4%1,401
Source: FT Research

Methodology: The FT poll of polls is calculated by taking the last seven poll results from unique pollsters for a given candidate and calculating an adjusted average, wherein the more recent polls are given a higher weight. Values may not add up to 100% due to rounding error and the way adjusted averages are calculated.

Illustrations by Bijou Karmen

Correction: A previous version of the table above incorrectly transposed the first-round voting intention values for Macron and Le Pen recorded by the the Opinion Way poll conducted 1-6 April