Donald Trump’s first 100 days

Timeline of the “Trump trade” and market-moving events

In the weeks after Donald Trump’s election victory last November, a “Trump trade” propelled stocks markets forward, as investors bet that he would trigger a wave of growth – while also spelling trouble for emerging markets.

In the 100 days since his inauguration, the trade has grown more complicated. Hopes of rapid tax cuts and sweeping deregulation have receded, but so have fears of counter-productive protectionism. The gains for stock markets remain intact, but beneath the surface markets have shifted significantly.

Here’s a look at Trump’s first 100 days in office.

Day 1
Jan 20
Jan 23
Jan 24
Jan 25
Jan 25
Jan 27
Jan 30
Feb 03
Feb 08
Feb 23
Feb 28
Mar 01
Mar 06
Mar 16
Mar 24
Mar 27
Apr 06
Apr 06
Apr 12
Apr 16
Apr 24
Apr 26
Apr 27
Day 100
Day 1 | January 20, 2017

President Trump takes office

Presidential inauguration days are usually negative for markets, but the S&P 500’s 0.34 per cent gain was its best inauguration day performance since President Eisenhower took the oath in 1953. The S&P dropped briefly as Mr Trump talked of “American carnage” during his speech but bounced back before the close.

S&P 500 on Jan 20
Day 4 | January 23, 2017

Trump scraps the Trans-Pacific Partnership

Mr Trump signed an executive order to withdraw the US from Barack Obama’s historic trade pact with Pacific nations. Markets were largely undisturbed, as Mr Trump made his plans to scrap the TPP well known on the campaign trail.

Day 5 | January 24, 2017

Trump meets with carmakers

The S&P 500 automobile manufacturers index hit its post-inauguration peak after Mr Trump met auto industry executives. Subsequent meetings with auto industry CEOs didn’t have the same effect on the market.

S&P 500 automobile manufacturers
Day 6 | January 25, 2017

Dow makes history

After more than a month of near-misses, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 20,000 on the president’s sixth day in office as investors predicted faster US growth.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
Day 6 | January 25, 2017

Border wall feud

The Mexican peso rallied almost 2 per cent against the dollar after Mr Trump signed an executive order calling for the construction of a wall on the southern border. The peso sank the next morning when Mexican president Enrique Peña Nieto tweeted “Mexico will not pay for any wall” and Mr Trump immediately canceled a planned meeting with him.

Mexican peso
Day 8 | January 27, 2017

Threat of a 20 per cent import tax

Shares of Walmart, the retailer which relies heavily on imports, hit their lowest point since inauguration after White House press secretary Sean Spicer said the US could use a 20 per cent import tax to finance the Mexican border wall.

Walmart hits a post-inauguration low
Share price ($)
Day 11 | January 30, 2017

Trump dismisses acting US attorney general

The US dollar index dropped sharply following a weekend of protests over the US travel ban and Mr Trump’s dismissal of acting attorney general Sally Yates. Ms Yates had refused to defend Mr Trump’s order banning travelers from seven Muslim-majority nations. The anxious mood also pushed investors to safe assets. Bond yields fell and gold prices edged slightly upward.

Dollar index
Day 15 | February 3, 2017

Trump kicks off financial regulation reform

Goldman Sachs shares had their best day since the inauguration as Mr Trump signed two executive orders aimed at easing financial regulation. Gains were compounded when Gary Cohn, Mr Trump’s economic advisor and the former number two at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC that the administration’s goal was to reduce corporate taxes to their “lowest possible level.”

Goldman Sachs
Share price ($)
Day 20 | February 8, 2017

Trump insults Nordstrom on Twitter

Nordstrom shares fell briefly, then rose to close 4 per cent higher after Mr Trump tweeted that Nordstrom had treated his daughter Ivanka unfairly by dropping her clothing label. Security markets were steadily learning not to overreact to presidential tweets.

Share price ($)
Day 35 | February 23, 2017

Attorney-General reverses order to phase out private prisons

Shares in Geo Group, one of the largest private prison operators in the US, rose 1.5 per cent in after-hours trading after Attorney-General Jeff Sessions issued a memo reversing former President Obama’s policy of phasing out the use of private prisons. Following the election, prison operators’ share prices had already doubled.

Geo Group
Share price ($)
Day 40 | February 28, 2017

Trump's first speech to Congress

The dollar reached its peak since Mr Trump’s inauguration in the days after the president’s well-received first speech to Congress, although its gains were attributed in part to growing expectations of an interest rate rise. It has since declined.

Dollar index
Day 41 | March 1, 2017

JP Morgan peaks relative to market

Excitement about the reflation trade intensified. Speaking to CNN after the closing bell on Feb 28, Bill Dudley, the governor of the New York Fed, said that rates were likely to raise — great news for banks’ profitability. Since then, investors have grown more nervous.

JP Morgan
Share price ($)
Day 46 | March 6, 2017

Trump signs revised travel order

After his first executive order that banned visitors from several Muslim-majority countries hit legal obstacles, Mr Trump unveiled a revised executive order dropping Iraqi citizens from the list of banned travelers.

Day 56 | March 16, 2017

Trump releases budget

The White House proposed its “America First” budget, which would make cuts to the state department, public broadcasting and environmental programs while increasing funding for defence, law enforcement and veterans’ affairs.

Day 64 | March 24, 2017

Trump fails to repeal Obamacare

Mr Trump’s plans for repealing Obamacare evaporated in the House of Representatives soon after the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office projected that 24m Americans would lose coverage under the Republicans’ plan. The S&P 500 healthcare facilities index rose to its highest level since 2015. US stocks suffered their worst weekly performance since the election amid concerns about Mr Trump’s ability to deliver on his promises.

S&P 500 healthcare facilities
Day 67 | March 27, 2017

Hopes sink for business tax reform

Companies that are subject to high tax rates — and therefore likely to benefit most from tax reform — sank as the failure of Mr Trump’s healthcare bill shifted attention to tax reform. Optimism bounced back in subsequent weeks, but stayed below pre-inauguration levels.

Goldman Sachs high effective tax rate companies relative to low tax companies
Day 77 | April 6, 2017

Trump launches attacks against Syria

A US missile strike on a Syrian air base caused investors to seek safe havens including the Japanese yen, gold and government bonds. Crude oil jumped to a month high above $56 a barrel.

Vix index
Day 77 | April 6, 2017

Trump meets with Xi Jinping

The Mexican peso, a bellwether of emerging market sentiment, settled following the much-anticipated meeting between President Trump and his Chinese counterpart at Mar-a-Lago, in which the two leaders negotiated agreements on finance and US beef exports. The peso fell again amid talk of a Nafta renegotiation on Apr 25.

Mexican peso
Day 83 | April 12, 2017

Trump says dollar is 'too strong'

After gaining nearly 5 per cent following Mr Trump’s election, the US dollar weakened in response to the president’s comments on how the greenback’s strength was keeping US companies from competing with Chinese companies. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen stood at a five-month high.

Dollar index
Day 87 | April 16, 2017

North Korea's missile test fails

The Trump administration signalled it would hold back from any immediate military or diplomatic response to a failed North Korean missile launch but warned of “other actions” if Pyongyang proceeded with a nuclear test.

$ per Troy ounce
Day 95 | April 24, 2017

Trump announces lumber tariffs

The Canadian dollar slid to its lowest level since December as the US president imposed new tariffs on imports of Canadian softwood lumber. Mr Trump said on Twitter that Canada has “made business for our dairy farmers in Wisconsin and other border states very difficult”.

Canadian dollar
Day 97 | April 26, 2017

Trump threatens to leave Nafta

The peso swung wildly as Trump warned that the US could still “terminate” its two-decade-old free-trade agreement with Mexico and Canada if it did not get a “fair deal” from a renegotiation of the pact, only hours after dropping a plan to pull out.

Mexican peso
Day 98 | April 27, 2017

Everyone, exhale

As Trump’s 100 days reached their end, the market scored a remarkable landmark. Despite all the political drama, the Vix index — often known as the “fear index” as it measures how much investors will pay to hedge against volatility — dropped to its lowest level since the Fourth of July weekend of 2014. Markets appear comfortable that growth can stay on course under Mr Trump.

Vix index