Predict the UK general election result

Sources: Press Association, British Election Study, Electoral Commission, House of Commons Library, Office for National Statistics, National Records of Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.

Note: The vote shares for the SNP and Plaid Cymru are for Scotland and Wales respectively, meaning that the displayed numbers add up to more than 100%. Seats in Northern Ireland are not projected due to a lack of comparable data. All historical results are notional.

Notional results: UK parliamentary constituency boundaries have changed since the last election in 2019, affecting 90 per cent of constituencies. All results prior to 2024 are therefore “notional”, or estimates of what the outcome of past elections would have been, had they been contested under the present boundaries. Notional results for 2019 were compiled by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher on behalf of BBC News, ITV News, Sky News and the Press Association. Calculations for Scotland were done by Professor David Denver and those for Northern Ireland by Nicholas Whyte. Notional results for all years prior to 2019 were calculated by the FT.

Produced by: Oliver Hawkins, Eade Hemingway, Ella Hollowood, Debie Loizou, Caroline Nevitt, Martin Stabe and Jonathan Vincent.

Additional work by: Lizzy Bowler, Joanna S Kao, Emma Lewis, Gulce Ozkan, Ændra Rininsland, Jana Tauschinski and Serra Yedikardes.

To contact the team that maintains this page, email elections@ft.com.