Trump vs Biden: who is leading the 2020 US election polls?

Use the FT’s interactive calculator and the latest polling data to zero in on which states’ electoral college votes are most essential to winning the presidency

Last updated
Electoral college votes
A chart made with Visual Vocabulary Components from the Financial Times visual and data journalism team.308Joe BidenDEMOCRAT132Donald TrumpREPUBLICAN270 to win1981109817115
Solid Dem
Leaning Dem
Toss-up
Leaning Rep
Solid Rep
Toss-up (98)
A chart made with Visual Vocabulary Components from the Financial Times visual and data journalism team.Texas38Ohio18Geor16NCar15Ariz11
States where the difference in poll numbers between Biden and Trump is less than 5 percentage points are classified as ‘toss-up’ states.
How Biden and Trump are polling|in the closest statesA chart made with Visual Vocabulary Components from the Financial Times visual and data journalism team.How Biden and Trump are pollingin the closest statesAverage poll margin in percentage points42024Biden leadsTrump leadsTexasOhioNorth CarolinaArizonaKeyBar height showsnumber of electoralcollege votesIncludes states with more than one recent poll

Methodology

The FT poll tracker is based on data from Real Clear Politics. We calculate poll averages for Biden and Trump in each state using an exponential decay formula, which gives more weight to recent polls. We then use these averages to determine whether a state is ‘solid’, ‘leaning’, or a ‘toss-up’. States where the difference between the two candidates is more than 10 percentage points are classified as ‘solid’, while those with a difference of less than 5 percentage points are classified as ‘toss-up’ states. If a state has less than two polls in the past 60 days, we use the Cook Political Report Electoral College Ratings to categorise it. We consider Cook’s ‘likely’ and ‘lean’ states ‘leaning’ in our classification. For several hours on June 23, we included states with only one poll.

Most states use a ‘winner-takes-all’ method to allocate electoral college votes: the winner of the state’s popular vote receives all of its electoral votes. In Maine and Nebraska, however, the winner in each congressional district receives one electoral vote and the statewide winner is awarded two electoral votes.

Polls collected byRealClearPolitics

Key presidential races calculator

Joe Biden and Donald Trump each need 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. Most states are leaning or solidly in favour of one candidate, but in some states the race is too close to call. These toss-up states are ranked below, with the closest races shown first. Which way do you think they will vote?

Pick a presidential winner by selecting who you think will win each state
If the election were held today, Biden’s advantage in solid and leaning states suggests he can secure an electoral college majority without toss-up states, leaving Trump with a narrower path to victory.
Trump (132)
Biden (308)
Toss-up (98)
270 to win
TOSS-UP
Biden +1
Ohio
18
Votes
TOSS-UP
Trump +2
Texas
38
Votes
TOSS-UP
Biden +3
North Carolina
15
Votes
TOSS-UP
Biden +3
Arizona
11
Votes
TOSS-UP
Georgia
16
Votes
LEANING DEMOCRAT
Biden +5
Florida
29
Votes
LEANING DEMOCRAT
Biden +6
Pennsylvania
20
Votes
LEANING DEMOCRAT
Biden +7
Wisconsin
10
Votes
LEANING REPUBLICAN
Trump +7
Missouri
10
Votes
LEANING DEMOCRAT
Biden +8
Michigan
16
Votes
LEANING REPUBLICAN
Iowa
6
Votes
LEANING REPUBLICAN
Maine (District 2)
1
Vote
LEANING DEMOCRAT
Colorado
9
Votes
LEANING DEMOCRAT
Maine (Statewide)
2
Votes
LEANING DEMOCRAT
Nebraska (District 2)
1
Vote
LEANING DEMOCRAT
Nevada
6
Votes
LEANING DEMOCRAT
New Hampshire
4
Votes
LEANING DEMOCRAT
Virginia
13
Votes
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2020. All rights reserved.
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