Arkansas presidential election polls

★ Strongly Republican ★
6
of 538 electoral votes

Which candidate is leading in Arkansas?

Polling average based on four-way race (%)

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Sep 23, 2016 Oct 25 Oct 56.5 Trump 31.0 Clinton 56.5 Trump 31.0 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Sep 23, 2016 Oct 25 Oct 56.5 Trump 31.0 Clinton 56.5 Trump 31.0 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Sep 23, 2016 Oct 25 Oct 56.5 Trump 31.0 Clinton 56.5 Trump 31.0 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Sep 23, 2016 Oct 25 Oct 56.5 Trump 31.0 Clinton 56.5 Trump 31.0 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Sep 23, 2016 Oct 25 Oct 56.5 Trump 31.0 Clinton 56.5 Trump 31.0 Clinton

The chart above displays the two leading presidential candidates, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump. Two other candidates with significant support are Libertarian Gary Johnson, who is polling at 4.5 per cent, and Jill Stein of the Green Party, who is polling at 2.5 per cent. Read about our methodology.

Who won past presidential races in Arkansas?

Arkansas National
Year Margin of victory (pts) Margin of victory (pts)
2012 Romney
+23.7 Obama
+3.9
2008 McCain
+19.9 Obama
+7.3
2004 Bush (G.W.)
+9.8 Bush (G.W.)
+2.5
2000 Bush (G.W.)
+5.5 Bush (G.W.)
+0.5
1996 Clinton (B.)
+16.9 Clinton (B.)
+8.5
1992 Clinton (B.)
+17.7 Clinton (B.)
+5.6
1988 Bush (G.H.W.)
+14.2 Bush (G.H.W.)
+7.7
1984 Reagan
+22.2 Reagan
+18.2
1980 Reagan
+0.6 Reagan
+9.7
1976 Carter
+30.1 Carter
+2.1
1972 Nixon
+38.2 Nixon
+23.2

Key data about Arkansas

Economic and demographic indicators relative to the national average (%). Darker lines indicate multiple states with similar values.

Wage growth

4.7% Arkansas -2.8%min 4.4%US 6.7%max

Unemployment rate

4% Arkansas 2.9%min 4.9%US 6.9%max

Poverty rate

19.1% Arkansas 8.2%min 13.5%US 22%max

College educated

20.6% Arkansas 18.7%min 29.3%US 53.4%max

Hispanic population

7.2% Arkansas 1.5%min 17.6%US 48%max

African-American population

15.7% Arkansas 0.6%min 13.3%US 48.3%max

All individual polls

Date Pollster Clinton / Trump (%) Clinton TrumpSample*
Oct 21 - 21 Talk Business, Hendrix College 33 / 56 33% 56%463 LV
Sep 15 - 17 Talk Business, Hendrix College 34 / 55 34% 55%831 LV
Sep 9 - 13 Emerson 29 / 57 29% 57%600 LV

* RV indicates registered voters; LV indicates likely voters

Methodology: The FT poll tracker is based on Real Clear Politics (RCP) data and checks for new polls at least once an hour as polls are added by RCP staff.

The poll tracker is based on a four-way race, which includes Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, Republican candidate Donald Trump, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. In states where Stein is not on the ballot (Nevada, Oklahoma and South Dakota), a three-way polling average is used. In Utah, where independent candidate Evan McMullin is polling significantly, a five-way polling average is used.

The FT’s US election poll tracker switched from two-way polling averages to four-way polling averages on September 21 to better reflect the options available to voters.

A state is considered ‘solid’ if the difference in polling averages between two candidates is above 10 per cent; ‘leaning’ if it is between 10 and 5 per cent; and a ‘toss-up’ if it falls below 5 per cent.

Most states use a ‘winner-take-all’ method of electoral college vote allocation. Maine and Nebraska, however, use an alternative method called the congressional district method in which the state is divided into congressional districts and the winner of each district takes that district’s electoral vote. The winner of the statewide vote is awarded two electoral votes.

Sources: Real Clear Politics, The Green Papers, US Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Produced by: Steve Bernard, Joanna S. Kao, Luke Kavanagh, Callum Locke, Claire Manibog, Caroline Nevitt, Tom Pearson, Ændrew Rininsland, and Martin Stabe.