Which candidate is leading in California?
Polling average based on four-way race (%)
The chart above displays the two leading presidential candidates, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump. Two other candidates with significant support are Libertarian Gary Johnson, who is polling at 4.3 per cent, and Jill Stein of the Green Party, who is polling at 3 per cent. Read about our methodology.
Who won past presidential races in California?
| California | National | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Margin of victory (pts) | Margin of victory (pts) | ||||
| 2012 | Obama | +23.1 | Obama | +3.9 | ||
| 2008 | Obama | +24.1 | Obama | +7.3 | ||
| 2004 | Kerry | +9.9 | Bush (G.W.) | +2.5 | ||
| 2000 | Gore | +11.8 | Bush (G.W.) | +0.5 | ||
| 1996 | Clinton (B.) | +12.9 | Clinton (B.) | +8.5 | ||
| 1992 | Clinton (B.) | +13.4 | Clinton (B.) | +5.6 | ||
| 1988 | Bush (G.H.W.) | +3.6 | Bush (G.H.W.) | +7.7 | ||
| 1984 | Reagan | +16.3 | Reagan | +18.2 | ||
| 1980 | Reagan | +16.8 | Reagan | +9.7 | ||
| 1976 | Ford | +1.8 | Carter | +2.1 | ||
| 1972 | Nixon | +13.5 | Nixon | +23.2 | ||
Key data about California
Economic and demographic indicators relative to the national average (%). Darker lines indicate multiple states with similar values.
Wage growth
Unemployment rate
Poverty rate
College educated
Hispanic population
African-American population
All individual polls
| Date | Pollster | Clinton / Trump (%) | Clinton | Trump | Sample* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 - 31 | Field | 53 / 33 | 53% | 33% | 1,498 LV |
| Oct 28 - 31 | KABC, SurveyUSA | 56 / 35 | 56% | 35% | 747 LV |
| Oct 14 - 23 | PPIC | 54 / 28 | 54% | 28% | 1,024 LV |
| Oct 13 - 15 | KABC, SurveyUSA | 56 / 30 | 56% | 30% | 725 LV |
| Sep 27 - 28 | KABC, SurveyUSA | 59 / 33 | 59% | 33% | 732 LV |
| Sep 9 - 18 | PPIC | 47 / 31 | 47% | 31% | 1,055 LV |
| Sep 7 - 13 | Field | 50 / 33 | 50% | 33% | 1,426 LV |
| Sep 8 - 11 | KABC, SurveyUSA | 57 / 32 | 57% | 32% | 678 LV |
| Jul 10 - 19 | PPIC | 46 / 30 | 46% | 30% | 1,056 LV |
* RV indicates registered voters; LV indicates likely voters
Methodology: The FT poll tracker is based on Real Clear Politics (RCP) data and checks for new polls at least once an hour as polls are added by RCP staff.
The poll tracker is based on a four-way race, which includes Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, Republican candidate Donald Trump, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. In states where Stein is not on the ballot (Nevada, Oklahoma and South Dakota), a three-way polling average is used. In Utah, where independent candidate Evan McMullin is polling significantly, a five-way polling average is used.
The FT’s US election poll tracker switched from two-way polling averages to four-way polling averages on September 21 to better reflect the options available to voters.
A state is considered ‘solid’ if the difference in polling averages between two candidates is above 10 per cent; ‘leaning’ if it is between 10 and 5 per cent; and a ‘toss-up’ if it falls below 5 per cent.
Most states use a ‘winner-take-all’ method of electoral college vote allocation. Maine and Nebraska, however, use an alternative method called the congressional district method in which the state is divided into congressional districts and the winner of each district takes that district’s electoral vote. The winner of the statewide vote is awarded two electoral votes.
Sources: Real Clear Politics, The Green Papers, US Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Produced by: Steve Bernard, Joanna S. Kao, Luke Kavanagh, Callum Locke, Claire Manibog, Caroline Nevitt, Tom Pearson, Ændrew Rininsland, and Martin Stabe.