Iowa presidential election polls

★ Toss-up state ★
6
of 538 electoral votes

Which candidate is leading in Iowa?

Polling average based on four-way race (%)

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 12, 2016 Nov 5 Aug Sep Oct 44.3 Trump 41.3 Clinton 44.3 Trump 41.3 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 12, 2016 Nov 5 Aug Sep Oct 44.3 Trump 41.3 Clinton 44.3 Trump 41.3 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 12, 2016 Nov 5 Aug Sep Oct 44.3 Trump 41.3 Clinton 44.3 Trump 41.3 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 12, 2016 Nov 5 Aug Sep Oct 44.3 Trump 41.3 Clinton 44.3 Trump 41.3 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 12, 2016 Nov 5 Aug Sep Oct 44.3 Trump 41.3 Clinton 44.3 Trump 41.3 Clinton

The chart above displays the two leading presidential candidates, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump. Two other candidates with significant support are Libertarian Gary Johnson, who is polling at 4.7 per cent, and Jill Stein of the Green Party, who is polling at 2.7 per cent. Read about our methodology.

Who won past presidential races in Iowa?

Iowa National
Year Margin of victory (pts) Margin of victory (pts)
2012 Obama
+5.8 Obama
+3.9
2008 Obama
+9.5 Obama
+7.3
2004 Bush (G.W.)
+0.7 Bush (G.W.)
+2.5
2000 Gore
+0.3 Bush (G.W.)
+0.5
1996 Clinton (B.)
+10.3 Clinton (B.)
+8.5
1992 Clinton (B.)
+6 Clinton (B.)
+5.6
1988 Dukakis
+10.2 Bush (G.H.W.)
+7.7
1984 Reagan
+7.4 Reagan
+18.2
1980 Reagan
+12.7 Reagan
+9.7
1976 Ford
+1 Carter
+2.1
1972 Nixon
+17.1 Nixon
+23.2

Key data about Iowa

Economic and demographic indicators relative to the national average (%). Darker lines indicate multiple states with similar values.

Wage growth

3.2% Iowa -2.8%min 4.4%US 6.7%max

Unemployment rate

4.2% Iowa 2.9%min 4.9%US 6.9%max

Poverty rate

12.2% Iowa 8.2%min 13.5%US 22%max

College educated

26.4% Iowa 18.7%min 29.3%US 53.4%max

Hispanic population

5.7% Iowa 1.5%min 17.6%US 48%max

African-American population

3.5% Iowa 0.6%min 13.3%US 48.3%max

All individual polls

Date Pollster Clinton / Trump (%) Clinton TrumpSample*
Nov 1 - 4 Des Moines Register 39 / 46 39% 46%800 LV
Nov 1 - 3 Loras 44 / 43 44% 43%500 LV
Nov 1 - 3 Emerson 41 / 44 41% 44%700 LV
Oct 20 - 26 Quinnipiac 44 / 44 44% 44%791 LV
Oct 3 - 6 Des Moines Register 39 / 43 39% 43%642 LV
Sep 20 - 22 Loras 38 / 38 38% 38%491 LV
Sep 13 - 21 Quinnipiac 37 / 44 37% 44%612 LV
Sep 12 - 14 Monmouth 37 / 45 37% 45%404 LV
Aug 31 - Sep 1 Emerson 39 / 44 39% 44%600 LV
Aug 17 - 19 CBS News, YouGov 40 / 40 40% 40%987 LV
Aug 9 - 16 Quinnipiac 41 / 39 41% 39%846 LV
Aug 8 - 10 Suffolk 36 / 37 36% 37%500 LV
Aug 3 - 7 NBC, WSJ, Marist 35 / 35 35% 35%899 RV
Jul 13 - 15 CBS News, YouGov 39 / 40 39% 40%998 LV
Jul 8 - 11 Monmouth 42 / 44 42% 44%401 LV
Jul 5 - 10 NBC, WSJ, Marist 37 / 37 37% 37%822 RV
Jul 7 - 8 Gravis 39 / 37 39% 37%1,318 A
Jun 24 - 28 Loras College 44 / 31 44% 31%600 LV

* RV indicates registered voters; LV indicates likely voters

Methodology: The FT poll tracker is based on Real Clear Politics (RCP) data and checks for new polls at least once an hour as polls are added by RCP staff.

The poll tracker is based on a four-way race, which includes Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, Republican candidate Donald Trump, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. In states where Stein is not on the ballot (Nevada, Oklahoma and South Dakota), a three-way polling average is used. In Utah, where independent candidate Evan McMullin is polling significantly, a five-way polling average is used.

The FT’s US election poll tracker switched from two-way polling averages to four-way polling averages on September 21 to better reflect the options available to voters.

A state is considered ‘solid’ if the difference in polling averages between two candidates is above 10 per cent; ‘leaning’ if it is between 10 and 5 per cent; and a ‘toss-up’ if it falls below 5 per cent.

Most states use a ‘winner-take-all’ method of electoral college vote allocation. Maine and Nebraska, however, use an alternative method called the congressional district method in which the state is divided into congressional districts and the winner of each district takes that district’s electoral vote. The winner of the statewide vote is awarded two electoral votes.

Sources: Real Clear Politics, The Green Papers, US Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Produced by: Steve Bernard, Joanna S. Kao, Luke Kavanagh, Callum Locke, Claire Manibog, Caroline Nevitt, Tom Pearson, Ændrew Rininsland, and Martin Stabe.