Michigan presidential election polls

★ Toss-up state ★
16
of 538 electoral votes

Which candidate is leading in Michigan?

Polling average based on four-way race (%)

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 17, 2016 Nov 7 Aug Sep Oct 42.0 Trump 45.4 Clinton 42.0 Trump 45.4 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 17, 2016 Nov 7 Aug Sep Oct 42.0 Trump 45.4 Clinton 42.0 Trump 45.4 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 17, 2016 Nov 7 Aug Sep Oct 42.0 Trump 45.4 Clinton 42.0 Trump 45.4 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 17, 2016 Nov 7 Aug Sep Oct 42.0 Trump 45.4 Clinton 42.0 Trump 45.4 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 17, 2016 Nov 7 Aug Sep Oct 42.0 Trump 45.4 Clinton 42.0 Trump 45.4 Clinton

The chart above displays the two leading presidential candidates, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump. Two other candidates with significant support are Libertarian Gary Johnson, who is polling at 4.8 per cent, and Jill Stein of the Green Party, who is polling at 2.3 per cent. Read about our methodology.

Who won past presidential races in Michigan?

Michigan National
Year Margin of victory (pts) Margin of victory (pts)
2012 Obama
+9.5 Obama
+3.9
2008 Obama
+16.5 Obama
+7.3
2004 Kerry
+3.4 Bush (G.W.)
+2.5
2000 Gore
+5.1 Bush (G.W.)
+0.5
1996 Clinton (B.)
+13.2 Clinton (B.)
+8.5
1992 Clinton (B.)
+7.4 Clinton (B.)
+5.6
1988 Bush (G.H.W.)
+7.9 Bush (G.H.W.)
+7.7
1984 Reagan
+19 Reagan
+18.2
1980 Reagan
+6.5 Reagan
+9.7
1976 Ford
+5.4 Carter
+2.1
1972 Nixon
+14.4 Nixon
+23.2

Key data about Michigan

Economic and demographic indicators relative to the national average (%). Darker lines indicate multiple states with similar values.

Wage growth

5.6% Michigan -2.8%min 4.4%US 6.7%max

Unemployment rate

4.6% Michigan 2.9%min 4.9%US 6.9%max

Poverty rate

15.8% Michigan 8.2%min 13.5%US 22%max

College educated

26.4% Michigan 18.7%min 29.3%US 53.4%max

Hispanic population

4.9% Michigan 1.5%min 17.6%US 48%max

African-American population

14.2% Michigan 0.6%min 13.3%US 48.3%max

All individual polls

Date Pollster Clinton / Trump (%) Clinton TrumpSample*
Nov 6 - 6 Trafalgar Group (R) 47 / 49 47% 49%1,200 LV
Nov 1 - 4 Gravis 46 / 41 46% 41%1,079 RV
Nov 3 - 4 PPP (D) 46 / 41 46% 41%957 LV
Nov 3 - 3 FOX 2 Detroit, Mitchell 46 / 41 46% 41%1,007 LV
Nov 1 - 3 Detroit Free Press 42 / 38 42% 38%600 LV
Nov 2 - 2 FOX 2 Detroit, Mitchell 47 / 44 47% 44%1,150 LV
Nov 1 - 1 FOX 2 Detroit, Mitchell 47 / 44 47% 44%887 LV
Oct 31 - 31 FOX 2 Detroit, Mitchell 50 / 43 50% 43%737 LV
Oct 30 - 30 FOX 2 Detroit, Mitchell 47 / 41 47% 41% 953 LV
Oct 25 - 26 Emerson 50 / 43 50% 43%500 LV
Oct 22 - 25 Detroit Free Press 41 / 34 41% 34%600 LV
Oct 25 - 25 FOX 2 Detroit, Mitchell 48 / 42 48% 42%1,030 LV
Oct 23 - 23 FOX 2 Detroit, Mitchell 49 / 41 49% 41%1,241 LV
Oct 16 - 19 MRG 41 / 36 41% 36%600 LV
Oct 18 - 18 FOX 2 Detroit, Mitchell 51 / 38 51% 38%1,102 LV
Oct 11 - 11 FOX 2 Detroit, Mitchell 47 / 37 47% 37%1,429 LV
Oct 10 - 11 Detroit News 42 / 31 42% 31%600 LV
Oct 1 - 3 Detroit Free Press 43 / 32 43% 32%600 LV
Sep 27 - 28 Detroit News 42 / 35 42% 35%600 LV
Sep 27 - 27 FOX 2 Detroit, Mitchell 46 / 41 46% 41%1,956 LV
Sep 18 - 24 MIRS-GSCI, Target Insyght 46 / 41 46% 41%600 LV
Sep 10 - 13 Detroit Free Press 38 / 35 38% 35%600 LV
Sep 6 - 7 FOX 2 Detroit, Mitchell 45 / 39 45% 39%940 LV
Aug 25 - 28 Emerson 45 / 40 45% 40%800 LV
Aug 22 - 24 Suffolk University 44 / 37 44% 37%500 LV
Aug 9 - 10 FOX 2 Detroit, Mitchell 44 / 33 44% 33%1,314 LV
Jul 30 - Aug 4 Detroit Free Press 43 / 32 43% 32%600 LV
Jul 30 - Aug 1 Detroit News 41 / 32 41% 32%600 LV
Jul 11 - 15 MRG 34 / 29 34% 29%800 LV
Jul 13 - 15 CBS News, YouGov 42 / 39 42% 39%1,201 LV
Jul 7 - 8 Gravis 37 / 34 37% 34%1,562 A

* RV indicates registered voters; LV indicates likely voters

Methodology: The FT poll tracker is based on Real Clear Politics (RCP) data and checks for new polls at least once an hour as polls are added by RCP staff.

The poll tracker is based on a four-way race, which includes Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, Republican candidate Donald Trump, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. In states where Stein is not on the ballot (Nevada, Oklahoma and South Dakota), a three-way polling average is used. In Utah, where independent candidate Evan McMullin is polling significantly, a five-way polling average is used.

The FT’s US election poll tracker switched from two-way polling averages to four-way polling averages on September 21 to better reflect the options available to voters.

A state is considered ‘solid’ if the difference in polling averages between two candidates is above 10 per cent; ‘leaning’ if it is between 10 and 5 per cent; and a ‘toss-up’ if it falls below 5 per cent.

Most states use a ‘winner-take-all’ method of electoral college vote allocation. Maine and Nebraska, however, use an alternative method called the congressional district method in which the state is divided into congressional districts and the winner of each district takes that district’s electoral vote. The winner of the statewide vote is awarded two electoral votes.

Sources: Real Clear Politics, The Green Papers, US Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Produced by: Steve Bernard, Joanna S. Kao, Luke Kavanagh, Callum Locke, Claire Manibog, Caroline Nevitt, Tom Pearson, Ændrew Rininsland, and Martin Stabe.