Nevada presidential election polls

★ Toss-up state ★
6
of 538 electoral votes

Which candidate is leading in Nevada?

Polling average based on three-way race (%)

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 15, 2016 Nov 7 Aug Sep Oct 45.8 Trump 45.0 Clinton 45.8 Trump 45.0 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 15, 2016 Nov 7 Aug Sep Oct 45.8 Trump 45.0 Clinton 45.8 Trump 45.0 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 15, 2016 Nov 7 Aug Sep Oct 45.8 Trump 45.0 Clinton 45.8 Trump 45.0 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 15, 2016 Nov 7 Aug Sep Oct 45.8 Trump 45.0 Clinton 45.8 Trump 45.0 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 15, 2016 Nov 7 Aug Sep Oct 45.8 Trump 45.0 Clinton 45.8 Trump 45.0 Clinton

The chart above displays the two leading presidential candidates, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump. Two other candidates with significant support are Libertarian Gary Johnson, who is polling at 4 per cent, and Jill Stein of the Green Party, who is not on the ballot in Nevada. Read about our methodology.

Who won past presidential races in Nevada?

Nevada National
Year Margin of victory (pts) Margin of victory (pts)
2012 Obama
+6.7 Obama
+3.9
2008 Obama
+12.5 Obama
+7.3
2004 Bush (G.W.)
+2.6 Bush (G.W.)
+2.5
2000 Bush (G.W.)
+3.5 Bush (G.W.)
+0.5
1996 Clinton (B.)
+1 Clinton (B.)
+8.5
1992 Clinton (B.)
+2.6 Clinton (B.)
+5.6
1988 Bush (G.H.W.)
+20.9 Bush (G.H.W.)
+7.7
1984 Reagan
+33.9 Reagan
+18.2
1980 Reagan
+35.7 Reagan
+9.7
1976 Ford
+4.4 Carter
+2.1
1972 Nixon
+27.4 Nixon
+23.2

Key data about Nevada

Economic and demographic indicators relative to the national average (%). Darker lines indicate multiple states with similar values.

Wage growth

5.3% Nevada -2.8%min 4.4%US 6.7%max

Unemployment rate

5.8% Nevada 2.9%min 4.9%US 6.9%max

Poverty rate

14.7% Nevada 8.2%min 13.5%US 22%max

College educated

22.5% Nevada 18.7%min 29.3%US 53.4%max

Hispanic population

28.1% Nevada 1.5%min 17.6%US 48%max

African-American population

9.3% Nevada 0.6%min 13.3%US 48.3%max

All individual polls

Date Pollster Clinton / Trump (%) Clinton TrumpSample*
Nov 3 - 6 Gravis 45 / 43 45% 43%1,158 LV
Nov 4 - 5 Emerson 47 / 46 47% 46%600 LV
Nov 1 - 2 Remington Research (R) 45 / 46 45% 46%1,793 LV
Oct 28 - Nov 1 8 News NOW - Las Vegas 45 / 45 45% 45%600 LV
Oct 27 - Nov 1 CNN, ORC 43 / 49 43% 49%790 LV
Oct 30 - 30 Remington Research (R) 44 / 48 44% 48%1,176 LV
Oct 26 - 27 Emerson 44 / 42 44% 42%550 LV
Oct 25 - 25 Gravis 46 / 46 46% 46%875 RV
Oct 20 - 24 NBC, WSJ, Marist 43 / 43 43% 43%707 LV
Oct 20 - 23 Las Vegas Review-Journal 48 / 41 48% 41%800 LV
Oct 20 - 22 Remington Research (R) 44 / 47 44% 47%1,332 LV
Oct 20 - 22 KTNV, Rasmussen 46 / 42 46% 42%826 LV
Oct 14 - 17 Monmouth 47 / 40 47% 40%413 LV
Oct 10 - 15 CNN, ORC 46 / 44 46% 44%698 LV
Oct 12 - 14 CBS News, YouGov 46 / 40 46% 40%996 LV
Oct 10 - 13 8 News NOW - Las Vegas 43 / 41 43% 41%600 LV
Oct 2 - 4 Emerson 43 / 43 43% 43%700 LV
Sep 27 - Oct 2 UNLV, Hart Research (D) 44 / 41 44% 41%700 RV
Sep 27 - 29 Las Vegas Review-Journal 45 / 44 45% 44%800 LV
Sep 27 - 29 Suffolk 44 / 38 44% 38%500 LV
Sep 18 - 20 FOX News 40 / 43 40% 43%704 LV
Sep 16 - 18 KTNV, Rasmussen 39 / 42 39% 42%800 LV
Sep 11 - 13 Monmouth 42 / 44 42% 44%406 LV
Sep 6 - 8 NBC, WSJ, Marist 41 / 42 41% 42%627 LV
Aug 15 - 17 Suffolk 44 / 42 44% 42%500 LV
Aug 2 - 5 CBS News, YouGov 43 / 41 43% 41%993 LV
Jul 29 - 31 KTNV, Rasmussen 41 / 40 41% 40%750 LV
Jul 22 - 24 KTNV, Rasmussen 38 / 43 38% 43%750 LV
Jul 7 - 10 Monmouth 45 / 41 45% 41%408 LV
May 24 - 25 Gravis 41 / 44 41% 44%1,637 RV

* RV indicates registered voters; LV indicates likely voters

Methodology: The FT poll tracker is based on Real Clear Politics (RCP) data and checks for new polls at least once an hour as polls are added by RCP staff.

The poll tracker is based on a four-way race, which includes Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, Republican candidate Donald Trump, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. In states where Stein is not on the ballot (Nevada, Oklahoma and South Dakota), a three-way polling average is used. In Utah, where independent candidate Evan McMullin is polling significantly, a five-way polling average is used.

The FT’s US election poll tracker switched from two-way polling averages to four-way polling averages on September 21 to better reflect the options available to voters.

A state is considered ‘solid’ if the difference in polling averages between two candidates is above 10 per cent; ‘leaning’ if it is between 10 and 5 per cent; and a ‘toss-up’ if it falls below 5 per cent.

Most states use a ‘winner-take-all’ method of electoral college vote allocation. Maine and Nebraska, however, use an alternative method called the congressional district method in which the state is divided into congressional districts and the winner of each district takes that district’s electoral vote. The winner of the statewide vote is awarded two electoral votes.

Sources: Real Clear Politics, The Green Papers, US Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Produced by: Steve Bernard, Joanna S. Kao, Luke Kavanagh, Callum Locke, Claire Manibog, Caroline Nevitt, Tom Pearson, Ændrew Rininsland, and Martin Stabe.