Trump vs Clinton: who is leading in the US election polls?

This page shows how polls for the 2016 US presidential election stood as voting was under way on November 8, and before the result was known.

Latest prediction

Electoral college votes

Clinton
203
Trump
164
171
32
171
17
147
Solid
Leaning
Toss-up
Solid
Leaning
States where the difference in poll numbers between Clinton and Trump is less than 5% are classed as 'toss-up' states, those with a difference of over 10% are classed as 'solid'. Maine (ME) and Nebraska use the congressional district method in which the winner of each district takes that district’s electoral vote.

The 270 calculator: which states will it take to win?

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump each need 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. Most states are leaning or solidly in favour of one candidate, but in some states the race is too close to call. These toss-up states are ranked below, with the closest races shown first. Which way do you think they will vote?

Electoral college votes
Closest races first Electoral votesVotes Margin Dem lead Pick a winner Rep lead
N.Car
15 votes
North Carolina
15   Clinton Trump  
Fla
29
Florida
29 +0.2   Clinton Trump +0.2
Maine
1
Maine (District 2)
1 +0.5   Clinton Trump +0.5
N Hamps
4
New Hampshire
4 +0.6 +0.6 Clinton Trump  
Nev
6
Nevada
6 +0.8   Clinton Trump +0.8
Penn
20
Pennsylvania
20 +1.9 +1.9 Clinton Trump  
Colo
9
Colorado
9 +2.9 +2.9 Clinton Trump  
Iowa
6
Iowa
6 +3   Clinton Trump +3
Mich
16
Michigan
16 +3.4 +3.4 Clinton Trump  
Ohio
18
Ohio
18 +3.5   Clinton Trump +3.5
Ariz
11
Arizona
11 +4   Clinton Trump +4
Maine
2
Maine (statewide)
2 +4.5 +4.5 Clinton Trump  
Geor
16
Georgia
16 +4.6   Clinton Trump +4.6
Va
13
Virginia
13 +5 +5 Clinton Trump  
NM
5
New Mexico
5 +5 +5 Clinton Trump  
Minn
10
Minnesota
10 +6 +6 Clinton Trump  
Wis
10
Wisconsin
10 +6.5 +6.5 Clinton Trump  
S Carolina
9
South Carolina
9 +7.6   Clinton Trump +7.6
Ore
7
Oregon
7 +8 +8 Clinton Trump  
Maine
1
Maine (District 1)
1 +9 +9 Clinton Trump  
Utah
6
Utah
6 +10.4   Clinton Trump +10.4
Mo
10
Missouri
10 +11   Clinton Trump +11
Ill
20
Illinois
20 +11.5 +11.5 Clinton Trump  
Tex
38
Texas
38 +12   Clinton Trump +12
NJ
14
New Jersey
14 +12.5 +12.5 Clinton Trump  
Wash
12
Washington
12 +14.3 +14.3 Clinton Trump  
Del
3
Delaware
3 +15.5 +15.5 Clinton Trump  
La
8
Louisiana
8 +16.3   Clinton Trump +16.3
NY
29
New York
29 +21 +21 Clinton Trump  
Calif
55
California
55 +22.3 +22.3 Clinton Trump  
Ark
6
Arkansas
6 +25.5   Clinton Trump +25.5
Vt
3
Vermont
3 +25.6 +25.6 Clinton Trump  
Mass
11
Massachusetts
11 +29.4 +29.4 Clinton Trump  
Md
10
Maryland
10 +32.6 +32.6 Clinton Trump  
Ala
9
Alabama
9   Clinton Trump  
Alaska
3
Alaska
3   Clinton Trump  
Conn
7
Connecticut
7   Clinton Trump  
DC
3
District of Columbia
3   Clinton Trump  
Hawaii
4
Hawaii
4   Clinton Trump  
Idaho
4
Idaho
4   Clinton Trump  
Ind
11
Indiana
11   Clinton Trump  
Kans
6
Kansas
6   Clinton Trump  
Ky
8
Kentucky
8   Clinton Trump  
Miss
6
Mississippi
6   Clinton Trump  
Mont
3
Montana
3   Clinton Trump  
Nebr
2
Nebraska (statewide)
2   Clinton Trump  
Nebr
1
Nebraska (District 1)
1   Clinton Trump  
Nebr
1
Nebraska (District 2)
1   Clinton Trump  
Nebr
1
Nebraska (District 3)
1   Clinton Trump  
ND
3
North Dakota
3   Clinton Trump  
Okla
7
Oklahoma
7   Clinton Trump  
Rhode Island
4
Rhode Island
4   Clinton Trump  
SD
3
South Dakota
3   Clinton Trump  
Tenn
11
Tennessee
11   Clinton Trump  
W Virginia
5
West Virginia
5   Clinton Trump  
Wyo
3
Wyoming
3   Clinton Trump  

Who is leading in national opinion polls?

National polling average based on four-way race (%)

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 1, 2016 Nov 8 Aug Sep Oct 42.2 Trump 45.5 Clinton 42.2 Trump 45.5 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 1, 2016 Nov 8 Aug Sep Oct 42.2 Trump 45.5 Clinton 42.2 Trump 45.5 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 1, 2016 Nov 8 Aug Sep Oct 42.2 Trump 45.5 Clinton 42.2 Trump 45.5 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 1, 2016 Nov 8 Aug Sep Oct 42.2 Trump 45.5 Clinton 42.2 Trump 45.5 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 1, 2016 Nov 8 Aug Sep Oct 42.2 Trump 45.5 Clinton 42.2 Trump 45.5 Clinton

The chart above displays the two leading presidential candidates, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump. Two other candidates with significant support are Libertarian Gary Johnson, who is polling at 4.7 per cent, and Jill Stein of the Green Party, who is polling at 1.9 per cent. Read about our methodology.

All national opinion polls

Date Pollster Clinton / Trump (%) Clinton TrumpSample*
Nov 4 - 7 IBD, TIPP Tracking 43 / 45 43% 45%1,026 LV
Nov 4 - 7 Economist, YouGov 45 / 41 45% 41%3,677 LV
Nov 2 - 6 Reuters, Ipsos 42 / 39 42% 39%2,196 LV
Nov 3 - 6 Gravis 47 / 43 47% 43%16,639 RV
Nov 3 - 6 Monmouth 50 / 44 50% 44%748 LV
Nov 3 - 6 FOX News 48 / 44 48% 44%1,295 LV
Oct 31 - Nov 6 NBC News, SM 47 / 41 47% 41%30,145 LV
Nov 2 - 6 Rasmussen Reports 45 / 43 45% 43%1,500 LV
Nov 2 - 6 CBS News 45 / 41 45% 41%1,426 LV
Nov 4 - 6 Bloomberg 44 / 41 44% 41%799 LV
Nov 3 - 6 IBD, TIPP Tracking 41 / 43 41% 43%1,026 LV
Nov 2 - 5 ABC, Wash Post Tracking 47 / 43 47% 43%1,937 LV
Nov 3 - 5 NBC News, Wall St. Jrnl 44 / 40 44% 40%1,282 LV
Nov 2 - 5 IBD, TIPP Tracking 43 / 44 43% 44%903 LV
Nov 1 - 4 ABC, Wash Post Tracking 48 / 43 48% 43%1,685 LV
Oct 31 - Nov 4 Reuters, Ipsos 43 / 39 43% 39%2,244 LV
Nov 1 - 4 IBD, TIPP Tracking 44 / 44 44% 44%804 LV
Nov 1 - 3 McClatchy, Marist 44 / 43 44% 43%940 LV
Nov 1 - 3 FOX News 45 / 43 45% 43%1,107 LV
Oct 30 - Nov 3 Reuters, Ipsos 44 / 37 44% 37%2,021 LV
Nov 1 - 3 Rasmussen Reports 44 / 44 44% 44%1,500 LV
Oct 30 - Nov 3 IBD, TIPP Tracking 44 / 44 44% 44%898 LV
Nov 1 - 2 Gravis 47 / 45 47% 45%2,435 RV
Oct 30 - Nov 2 ABC, Wash Post Tracking 47 / 43 47% 43%1,151 LV
Oct 29 - Nov 2 Reuters, Ipsos 45 / 37 45% 37%1,858 LV
Oct 31 - Nov 2 Rasmussen Reports 42 / 45 42% 45%1,500 LV
Oct 29 - Nov 2 IBD, TIPP Tracking 44 / 44 44% 44%867 LV
Oct 28 - Nov 1 CBS News, NY Times 45 / 42 45% 42%1,333 LV
Oct 29 - Nov 1 ABC, Wash Post Tracking 47 / 45 47% 45%1,167 LV
Oct 30 - Nov 1 Economist, YouGov 46 / 43 46% 43%1,233 LV
Oct 30 - Nov 1 Rasmussen Reports 44 / 44 44% 44%1,500 LV
Oct 28 - Nov 1 IBD, TIPP Tracking 44 / 44 44% 44%862 LV
Oct 31 - 31 Gravis 46 / 45 46% 45%5,360 RV
Oct 28 - 31 ABC, Wash Post Tracking 46 / 46 46% 46%1,182 LV
Oct 27 - 31 Rasmussen Reports 44 / 44 44% 44%1,500 LV
Oct 26 - 31 IBD, TIPP Tracking 45 / 44 45% 44%1,018 LV
Oct 27 - 30 ABC, Wash Post Tracking 45 / 46 45% 46%1,128 LV
Oct 24 - 30 NBC News, SM 47 / 41 47% 41%40,816 LV
Oct 26 - 30 Rasmussen Reports 45 / 42 45% 42%1,500 LV
Oct 25 - 30 IBD, TIPP Tracking 45 / 44 45% 44%1,039 LV
Oct 26 - 29 ABC, Wash Post Tracking 46 / 45 46% 45%1,165 LV
Oct 24 - 29 IBD, TIPP Tracking 44 / 42 44% 42%1,039 LV
Oct 25 - 28 ABC, Wash Post Tracking 46 / 45 46% 45%1,160 LV
Oct 25 - 28 ABC, Wash Post Tracking 46 / 45 46% 45%1,160 LV
Oct 23 - 28 IBD, TIPP Tracking 45 / 41 45% 41%1,013 LV
Oct 24 - 27 ABC, Wash Post Tracking 47 / 45 47% 45%1,148 LV
Oct 24 - 27 ABC News Tracking 47 / 45 47% 45%1,148 LV
Oct 25 - 27 Rasmussen Reports 45 / 45 45% 45%1,500 LV
Oct 22 - 27 IBD, TIPP Tracking 44 / 41 44% 41%973 LV
Oct 23 - 26 ABC, Wash Post Tracking 48 / 44 48% 44%1,109 LV
Oct 23 - 26 ABC News Tracking 48 / 44 48% 44%1,109 LV
Oct 25 - 26 Gravis 46 / 45 46% 45%1,824 RV
Oct 22 - 26 Economist, YouGov 46 / 41 46% 41%1,209 LV
Oct 24 - 26 Rasmussen Reports 45 / 44 45% 44%1,500 LV
Oct 21 - 26 IBD, TIPP Tracking 43 / 41 43% 41%945 LV
Oct 22 - 25 ABC, Wash Post Tracking 48 / 42 48% 42%1,135 LV
Oct 20 - 25 Pew Research 46 / 40 46% 40%2,120 RV
Oct 22 - 25 ABC News Tracking 48 / 42 48% 42%1,135 LV
Oct 22 - 25 FOX News 44 / 41 44% 41%1,221 LV
Oct 23 - 25 Rasmussen Reports 44 / 43 44% 43%1,500 LV
Oct 20 - 25 IBD, TIPP Tracking 42 / 41 42% 41%921 LV
Oct 21 - 24 CNBC 43 / 34 43% 34% LV
Oct 20 - 24 Associated Press-GfK 51 / 37 51% 37%1,212 LV
Oct 20 - 24 USA Today, Suffolk 47 / 38 47% 38%1,000 LV
Oct 20 - 24 Reuters, Ipsos 42 / 38 42% 38%1,170 LV
Oct 21 - 24 ABC News Tracking 49 / 40 49% 40%1,119 LV
Oct 20 - 24 Rasmussen Reports 43 / 42 43% 42%1,500 LV
Oct 19 - 24 IBD, TIPP Tracking 42 / 41 42% 41%815 LV
Oct 20 - 23 ABC News Tracking 50 / 38 50% 38%611 LV
Oct 17 - 23 NBC News, SM 46 / 41 46% 41%32,225 LV
Oct 20 - 23 CNN, ORC 49 / 44 49% 44%779 LV
Oct 19 - 23 Rasmussen Reports 41 / 43 41% 43%1,500 LV
Oct 18 - 23 IBD, TIPP Tracking 41 / 41 41% 41%815 LV
Oct 20 - 22 ABC News Tracking 50 / 38 50% 38%874 LV
Oct 20 - 22 ABC News Tracking 50 / 38 50% 38%874 LV
Oct 17 - 22 IBD, TIPP Tracking 41 / 43 41% 43%783 LV
Oct 16 - 21 IBD, TIPP Tracking 40 / 42 40% 42%791 LV
Oct 18 - 20 Rasmussen Reports 41 / 43 41% 43%1,500 LV
Oct 15 - 20 IBD, TIPP Tracking 40 / 41 40% 41%789 LV
Oct 17 - 19 Rasmussen Reports 40 / 43 40% 43%1,500 LV
Oct 14 - 19 IBD, TIPP Tracking 40 / 41 40% 41%779 LV
Oct 13 - 18 IBD, TIPP Tracking 40 / 41 40% 41%782 LV
Oct 17 - 18 Quinnipiac 47 / 40 47% 40%1,007 LV
Oct 13 - 18 IBD, TIPP 40 / 41 40% 41%782 LV
Oct 15 - 18 Economist, YouGov 42 / 38 42% 38%925 RV
Oct 16 - 18 Rasmussen Reports 42 / 42 42% 42%1,500 LV
Oct 13 - 17 Reuters, Ipsos 42 / 38 42% 38%1,190 LV
Oct 14 - 17 Bloomberg 47 / 38 47% 38%1,006 LV
Oct 15 - 17 FOX News 45 / 39 45% 39%912 LV
Oct 13 - 17 Rasmussen Reports 42 / 41 42% 41%1,500 LV
Oct 10 - 16 NBC News, SM 46 / 40 46% 40%24,804 LV
Oct 12 - 16 CBS News 47 / 38 47% 38%1,189 LV
Oct 14 - 16 Monmouth 50 / 38 50% 38%726 LV
Oct 12 - 16 Rasmussen Reports 43 / 41 43% 41%1,500 LV
Oct 11 - 14 Boston Globe 46 / 36 46% 36%845 LV
Oct 8 - 13 GW, Battleground 47 / 39 47% 39%1,000 LV
Oct 10 - 13 NBC News, Wall St. Jrnl 48 / 37 48% 37%905 LV
Oct 10 - 13 ABC News, Wash Post 47 / 43 47% 43%740 LV
Oct 11 - 13 Rasmussen Reports 41 / 43 41% 43%1,500 LV
Oct 10 - 12 FOX News 45 / 38 45% 38%917 LV
Oct 10 - 12 Rasmussen Reports 41 / 43 41% 43%1,500 LV
Oct 9 - 11 Rasmussen Reports 43 / 39 43% 39%1,500 LV
Oct 6 - 10 Reuters, Ipsos 44 / 37 44% 37%2,363 LV
Oct 8 - 10 NBC News, Wall St. Jrnl 46 / 37 46% 37%806 LV
Oct 6 - 10 Rasmussen Reports 44 / 39 44% 39%1,500 LV
Oct 8 - 9 NBC News, Wall St. Jrnl 46 / 35 46% 35%447 LV
Oct 5 - 9 Rasmussen Reports 45 / 38 45% 38%1,500 LV
Oct 3 - 9 NBC News, SM 46 / 41 46% 41%23,329 LV
Oct 7 - 8 Economist, YouGov 44 / 38 44% 38%971 RV
Oct 3 - 6 FOX News 44 / 42 44% 42%896 LV
Oct 5 - 6 Quinnipiac 45 / 40 45% 40%1,064 LV
Oct 4 - 6 Rasmussen Reports 43 / 42 43% 42%1,500 LV
Oct 3 - 5 Rasmussen Reports 41 / 43 41% 43%1,500 LV
Oct 2 - 4 Rasmussen Reports 41 / 42 41% 42%1,500 LV
Oct 3 - 3 Gravis 44 / 44 44% 44%1,690 RV
Sep 29 - Oct 3 Reuters, Ipsos 42 / 36 42% 36%1,239 LV
Sep 29 - Oct 3 Rasmussen Reports 42 / 41 42% 41%1,500 LV
Oct 1 - 3 Economist, YouGov 43 / 40 43% 40%911 RV
Sep 28 - Oct 2 Rasmussen Reports 43 / 40 43% 40%1,500 LV
Sep 26 - Oct 2 NBC News, SM 46 / 40 46% 40%26,925 LV
Sep 28 - Oct 2 CBS News 45 / 41 45% 41%1,217 LV
Sep 28 - Oct 2 CNN, ORC 47 / 42 47% 42%1,213 LV
Sep 28 - Oct 2 Rasmussen Reports 43 / 40 43% 40%1,500 LV
Sep 27 - 29 Rasmussen Reports 43 / 42 43% 42%1,500 LV
Sep 27 - 29 FOX News 43 / 40 43% 40%911 LV
Sep 26 - 28 Rasmussen Reports 42 / 41 42% 41%1,500 LV
Sep 27 - 28 PPP (D) 44 / 40 44% 40%933 LV
Sep 22 - 26 Reuters, Ipsos 42 / 38 42% 38%1,041 LV
Sep 19 - 25 NBC News, SM 45 / 40 45% 40%13,598 LV
Sep 22 - 25 Monmouth 46 / 42 46% 42%729 LV
Sep 22 - 25 Quinnipiac 44 / 43 44% 43%1,115 LV
Sep 21 - 24 Bloomberg 41 / 43 41% 43%1,002 LV
Sep 22 - 24 Economist, YouGov 44 / 41 44% 41%948 RV
Sep 19 - 22 ABC News, Wash Post 46 / 44 46% 44%651 LV
Sep 20 - 21 Rasmussen Reports 39 / 44 39% 44%1,000 LV
Sep 20 - 20 Gravis 44 / 40 44% 40%1,560 LV
Sep 15 - 20 McClatchy, Marist 45 / 39 45% 39%758 LV
Sep 16 - 19 NBC News, Wall St. Jrnl 43 / 37 43% 37%922 LV
Sep 15 - 19 Reuters, Ipsos 37 / 39 37% 39%1,111 LV
Sep 18 - 19 Economist, YouGov 40 / 38 40% 38%936 RV
Sep 12 - 18 NBC News, SM 45 / 40 45% 40%13,320 LV
Sep 15 - 16 Associated Press-GfK 45 / 39 45% 39%1,251 LV
Sep 11 - 14 FOX News 41 / 40 41% 40%867 LV
Sep 12 - 13 Rasmussen Reports 40 / 42 40% 42%1,000 LV
Sep 9 - 13 CBS News, NY Times 42 / 42 42% 42%1,433 LV
Sep 10 - 13 Economist, YouGov 42 / 40 42% 40%926 RV
Sep 8 - 13 Quinnipiac 41 / 39 41% 39%960 LV
Sep 8 - 12 Reuters, Ipsos 39 / 39 39% 39%1,127 LV
Sep 5 - 11 NBC News, SM 42 / 40 42% 40%16,220 RV
Sep 7 - 8 Gravis 43 / 40 43% 40%2,348 LV
Sep 5 - 8 ABC News, Wash Post 46 / 41 46% 41%642 LV
Sep 6 - 7 Rasmussen Reports 43 / 39 43% 39%1,000 LV
Sep 4 - 6 Economist, YouGov 40 / 38 40% 38%955 RV
Sep 1 - 5 Reuters, Ipsos 40 / 38 40% 38%1,084 LV
Aug 29 - Sep 4 NBC News, SM 41 / 37 41% 37%32,226 RV
Sep 1 - 4 CNN, ORC 43 / 45 43% 45%786 LV
Aug 28 - Sep 1 GWU, Battleground 42 / 40 42% 40%1,000 LV
Aug 26 - Sep 1 IBD, TIPP 39 / 39 39% 39%861 LV
Aug 29 - 30 Rasmussen Reports 39 / 40 39% 40%1,000 LV
Aug 28 - 30 FOX News 41 / 39 41% 39%1,011 RV
Aug 24 - 29 USA Today, Suffolk 42 / 35 42% 35%1,000 LV
Aug 25 - 29 Reuters, Ipsos 40 / 38 40% 38%1,404 LV
Aug 27 - 29 Economist, YouGov 42 / 37 42% 37%1,119 RV
Aug 26 - 28 PPP (D) 42 / 37 42% 37%881 LV
Aug 22 - 28 NBC News, SM 41 / 37 41% 37%24,104 RV
Aug 25 - 28 Monmouth 46 / 39 46% 39%689 LV
Aug 20 - 24 Reuters, Ipsos 39 / 36 39% 36%1,049 LV
Aug 18 - 24 Quinnipiac 45 / 38 45% 38%1,498 LV
Aug 23 - 24 Rasmussen Reports 42 / 38 42% 38%1,000 LV
Aug 22 - 23 Gravis 42 / 41 42% 41%1,493 LV
Aug 19 - 23 Economist, YouGov 42 / 38 42% 38%906 RV
Aug 15 - 21 NBC News, SM 43 / 38 43% 38%17,459 RV
Aug 13 - 17 Reuters, Ipsos 39 / 35 39% 35%1,049 LV
Aug 9 - 16 Pew Research 41 / 37 41% 37%1,567 RV
Aug 15 - 16 Rasmussen Reports 41 / 39 41% 39%1,000 LV
Aug 14 - 16 Economist, YouGov 41 / 35 41% 35%911 RV
Aug 8 - 14 NBC News, SM 43 / 37 43% 37%15,179 RV
Aug 6 - 10 Reuters, Ipsos 40 / 35 40% 35%974 LV
Aug 9 - 10 Rasmussen Reports 43 / 40 43% 40%1,000 LV
Aug 9 - 9 Gravis 42 / 37 42% 37%2,832 LV
Aug 6 - 9 Economist, YouGov 42 / 36 42% 36%911 RV
Aug 5 - 8 Bloomberg 44 / 40 44% 40%749 LV
Aug 1 - 7 NBC News, SM 44 / 38 44% 38%11,480 RV
Aug 4 - 7 Monmouth 50 / 37 50% 37%683 LV
Aug 1 - 4 ABC News, Wash Post 45 / 37 45% 37%815 RV
Jul 29 - Aug 4 IBD, TIPP 39 / 35 39% 35%851 RV
Jul 31 - Aug 3 NBC News, Wall St. Jrnl 43 / 34 43% 34%800 RV
Aug 1 - 3 McClatchy, Marist 45 / 31 45% 31%983 RV
Jul 30 - Aug 3 Reuters, Ipsos 42 / 38 42% 38%1,072 LV
Aug 1 - 2 Rasmussen Reports 44 / 40 44% 40%1,000 LV
Jul 30 - Aug 1 Economist, YouGov 41 / 36 41% 36%933 RV
Jul 25 - 31 NBC News, SM 42 / 38 42% 38%12,742 RV
Jul 29 - 31 CNN, ORC 45 / 37 45% 37%894 RV
Jul 29 - 30 PPP (D) 46 / 41 46% 41%1,276 LV
Jul 25 - 29 Reuters, Ipsos 37 / 37 37% 37%1,433 LV
Jul 18 - 24 NBC News, SM 39 / 41 39% 41%12,931 RV
Jul 23 - 24 Economist, YouGov 40 / 38 40% 38%1,057 RV
Jul 22 - 24 CNN, ORC 39 / 44 39% 44%882 RV
Jul 16 - 20 Reuters, Ipsos 39 / 35 39% 35%1,232 RV
Jul 11 - 17 NBC News, SM 39 / 40 39% 40%9,436 RV
Jul 15 - 17 Economist, YouGov 40 / 37 40% 37%925 RV
Jul 14 - 16 Monmouth 45 / 43 45% 43%688 LV
Jul 13 - 16 CNN, ORC 42 / 37 42% 37%872 RV
Jul 11 - 14 ABC News, Wash Post 42 / 38 42% 38%816 RV
Jul 9 - 13 NBC News, Wall St. Jrnl 41 / 35 41% 35%1,000 RV
Jul 7 - 11 Associated Press-GfK 40 / 36 40% 36%837 RV
Jul 9 - 11 Economist, YouGov 40 / 37 40% 37%932 RV
Jul 5 - 9 McClatchy, Marist 40 / 35 40% 35%1,053 RV
Jul 2 - 6 Reuters, Ipsos 42 / 33 42% 33%1,345 RV
Jul 2 - 4 Economist, YouGov 42 / 37 42% 37%1,004 RV
Jun 26 - 29 USA Today, Suffolk 39 / 35 39% 35%1,000 LV
Jun 24 - 29 IBD, TIPP 37 / 36 37% 36%837 RV
Jun 25 - 29 Reuters, Ipsos 42 / 31 42% 31%1,247 RV
Jun 27 - 28 PPP (D) 45 / 41 45% 41%947 RV
Jun 21 - 27 Quinnipiac 39 / 37 39% 37%1,610 RV
Jun 19 - 23 NBC News, Wall St. Jrnl 39 / 38 39% 38%1,000 RV
Jun 20 - 23 ABC News, Wash Post 47 / 37 47% 37%836 RV
Jun 18 - 22 Reuters, Ipsos 43 / 34 43% 34%1,339 RV
Jun 16 - 19 CNN, ORC 42 / 38 42% 38%891 RV
Jun 15 - 19 Monmouth 44 / 37 44% 37%721 LV
Jun 11 - 15 Reuters, Ipsos 39 / 29 39% 29%1,323 RV
Jun 8 - 8 Guardian, SurveyUSA 39 / 36 39% 36%1,408 RV
May 24 - 30 Quinnipiac 40 / 38 40% 38%1,561 RV
May 6 - 9 PPP (D) 42 / 38 42% 38%1,222 RV

* RV indicates registered voters; LV indicates likely voters

Methodology: The FT poll tracker is based on Real Clear Politics (RCP) data and checks for new polls at least once an hour as polls are added by RCP staff.

The poll tracker is based on a four-way race, which includes Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, Republican candidate Donald Trump, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. In states where Stein is not on the ballot (Nevada, Oklahoma and South Dakota), a three-way polling average is used. In Utah, where independent candidate Evan McMullin is polling significantly, a five-way polling average is used.

The FT’s US election poll tracker switched from two-way polling averages to four-way polling averages on September 21 to better reflect the options available to voters.

A state is considered ‘solid’ if the difference in polling averages between two candidates is above 10 per cent; ‘leaning’ if it is between 10 and 5 per cent; and a ‘toss-up’ if it falls below 5 per cent.

Most states use a ‘winner-take-all’ method of electoral college vote allocation. Maine and Nebraska, however, use an alternative method called the congressional district method in which the state is divided into congressional districts and the winner of each district takes that district’s electoral vote. The winner of the statewide vote is awarded two electoral votes.

Sources: Real Clear Politics, The Green Papers, US Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Produced by: Steve Bernard, Joanna S. Kao, Luke Kavanagh, Callum Locke, Claire Manibog, Caroline Nevitt, Tom Pearson, Ændrew Rininsland, and Martin Stabe.