This page shows how polls for the 2016 US presidential election stood as voting was under way on November 8, and before the result was known.
Latest prediction
Electoral college votes
The 270 calculator: which states will it take to win?
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump each need 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. Most states are leaning or solidly in favour of one candidate, but in some states the race is too close to call. These toss-up states are ranked below, with the closest races shown first. Which way do you think they will vote?
Who is leading in national opinion polls?
National polling average based on four-way race (%)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Jul 1, 2016
Nov 8
Aug
Sep
Oct
42.2
Trump
45.5
Clinton
42.2
Trump
45.5
Clinton
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Jul 1, 2016
Nov 8
Aug
Sep
Oct
42.2
Trump
45.5
Clinton
42.2
Trump
45.5
Clinton
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Jul 1, 2016
Nov 8
Aug
Sep
Oct
42.2
Trump
45.5
Clinton
42.2
Trump
45.5
Clinton
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Jul 1, 2016
Nov 8
Aug
Sep
Oct
42.2
Trump
45.5
Clinton
42.2
Trump
45.5
Clinton
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Jul 1, 2016
Nov 8
Aug
Sep
Oct
42.2
Trump
45.5
Clinton
42.2
Trump
45.5
Clinton
The chart above displays the two leading presidential candidates, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump. Two other candidates with significant support are Libertarian Gary Johnson, who is polling at 4.7 per cent, and Jill Stein of the Green Party, who is polling at 1.9 per cent. Read about our methodology .
All national opinion polls
Date
Pollster
Clinton / Trump (%)
Clinton
Trump Sample*
Nov 4 - 7
IBD, TIPP Tracking
43 / 45
43%
45% 1,026 LV
Nov 4 - 7
Economist, YouGov
45 / 41
45%
41% 3,677 LV
Nov 2 - 6
Reuters, Ipsos
42 / 39
42%
39% 2,196 LV
Nov 3 - 6
Gravis
47 / 43
47%
43% 16,639 RV
Nov 3 - 6
Monmouth
50 / 44
50%
44% 748 LV
Nov 3 - 6
FOX News
48 / 44
48%
44% 1,295 LV
Oct 31 - Nov 6
NBC News, SM
47 / 41
47%
41% 30,145 LV
Nov 2 - 6
Rasmussen Reports
45 / 43
45%
43% 1,500 LV
Nov 2 - 6
CBS News
45 / 41
45%
41% 1,426 LV
Nov 4 - 6
Bloomberg
44 / 41
44%
41% 799 LV
Nov 3 - 6
IBD, TIPP Tracking
41 / 43
41%
43% 1,026 LV
Nov 2 - 5
ABC, Wash Post Tracking
47 / 43
47%
43% 1,937 LV
Nov 3 - 5
NBC News, Wall St. Jrnl
44 / 40
44%
40% 1,282 LV
Nov 2 - 5
IBD, TIPP Tracking
43 / 44
43%
44% 903 LV
Nov 1 - 4
ABC, Wash Post Tracking
48 / 43
48%
43% 1,685 LV
Oct 31 - Nov 4
Reuters, Ipsos
43 / 39
43%
39% 2,244 LV
Nov 1 - 4
IBD, TIPP Tracking
44 / 44
44%
44% 804 LV
Nov 1 - 3
McClatchy, Marist
44 / 43
44%
43% 940 LV
Nov 1 - 3
FOX News
45 / 43
45%
43% 1,107 LV
Oct 30 - Nov 3
Reuters, Ipsos
44 / 37
44%
37% 2,021 LV
Nov 1 - 3
Rasmussen Reports
44 / 44
44%
44% 1,500 LV
Oct 30 - Nov 3
IBD, TIPP Tracking
44 / 44
44%
44% 898 LV
Nov 1 - 2
Gravis
47 / 45
47%
45% 2,435 RV
Oct 30 - Nov 2
ABC, Wash Post Tracking
47 / 43
47%
43% 1,151 LV
Oct 29 - Nov 2
Reuters, Ipsos
45 / 37
45%
37% 1,858 LV
Oct 31 - Nov 2
Rasmussen Reports
42 / 45
42%
45% 1,500 LV
Oct 29 - Nov 2
IBD, TIPP Tracking
44 / 44
44%
44% 867 LV
Oct 28 - Nov 1
CBS News, NY Times
45 / 42
45%
42% 1,333 LV
Oct 29 - Nov 1
ABC, Wash Post Tracking
47 / 45
47%
45% 1,167 LV
Oct 30 - Nov 1
Economist, YouGov
46 / 43
46%
43% 1,233 LV
Oct 30 - Nov 1
Rasmussen Reports
44 / 44
44%
44% 1,500 LV
Oct 28 - Nov 1
IBD, TIPP Tracking
44 / 44
44%
44% 862 LV
Oct 31 - 31
Gravis
46 / 45
46%
45% 5,360 RV
Oct 28 - 31
ABC, Wash Post Tracking
46 / 46
46%
46% 1,182 LV
Oct 27 - 31
Rasmussen Reports
44 / 44
44%
44% 1,500 LV
Oct 26 - 31
IBD, TIPP Tracking
45 / 44
45%
44% 1,018 LV
Oct 27 - 30
ABC, Wash Post Tracking
45 / 46
45%
46% 1,128 LV
Oct 24 - 30
NBC News, SM
47 / 41
47%
41% 40,816 LV
Oct 26 - 30
Rasmussen Reports
45 / 42
45%
42% 1,500 LV
Oct 25 - 30
IBD, TIPP Tracking
45 / 44
45%
44% 1,039 LV
Oct 26 - 29
ABC, Wash Post Tracking
46 / 45
46%
45% 1,165 LV
Oct 24 - 29
IBD, TIPP Tracking
44 / 42
44%
42% 1,039 LV
Oct 25 - 28
ABC, Wash Post Tracking
46 / 45
46%
45% 1,160 LV
Oct 25 - 28
ABC, Wash Post Tracking
46 / 45
46%
45% 1,160 LV
Oct 23 - 28
IBD, TIPP Tracking
45 / 41
45%
41% 1,013 LV
Oct 24 - 27
ABC, Wash Post Tracking
47 / 45
47%
45% 1,148 LV
Oct 24 - 27
ABC News Tracking
47 / 45
47%
45% 1,148 LV
Oct 25 - 27
Rasmussen Reports
45 / 45
45%
45% 1,500 LV
Oct 22 - 27
IBD, TIPP Tracking
44 / 41
44%
41% 973 LV
Oct 23 - 26
ABC, Wash Post Tracking
48 / 44
48%
44% 1,109 LV
Oct 23 - 26
ABC News Tracking
48 / 44
48%
44% 1,109 LV
Oct 25 - 26
Gravis
46 / 45
46%
45% 1,824 RV
Oct 22 - 26
Economist, YouGov
46 / 41
46%
41% 1,209 LV
Oct 24 - 26
Rasmussen Reports
45 / 44
45%
44% 1,500 LV
Oct 21 - 26
IBD, TIPP Tracking
43 / 41
43%
41% 945 LV
Oct 22 - 25
ABC, Wash Post Tracking
48 / 42
48%
42% 1,135 LV
Oct 20 - 25
Pew Research
46 / 40
46%
40% 2,120 RV
Oct 22 - 25
ABC News Tracking
48 / 42
48%
42% 1,135 LV
Oct 22 - 25
FOX News
44 / 41
44%
41% 1,221 LV
Oct 23 - 25
Rasmussen Reports
44 / 43
44%
43% 1,500 LV
Oct 20 - 25
IBD, TIPP Tracking
42 / 41
42%
41% 921 LV
Oct 21 - 24
CNBC
43 / 34
43%
34% LV
Oct 20 - 24
Associated Press-GfK
51 / 37
51%
37% 1,212 LV
Oct 20 - 24
USA Today, Suffolk
47 / 38
47%
38% 1,000 LV
Oct 20 - 24
Reuters, Ipsos
42 / 38
42%
38% 1,170 LV
Oct 21 - 24
ABC News Tracking
49 / 40
49%
40% 1,119 LV
Oct 20 - 24
Rasmussen Reports
43 / 42
43%
42% 1,500 LV
Oct 19 - 24
IBD, TIPP Tracking
42 / 41
42%
41% 815 LV
Oct 20 - 23
ABC News Tracking
50 / 38
50%
38% 611 LV
Oct 17 - 23
NBC News, SM
46 / 41
46%
41% 32,225 LV
Oct 20 - 23
CNN, ORC
49 / 44
49%
44% 779 LV
Oct 19 - 23
Rasmussen Reports
41 / 43
41%
43% 1,500 LV
Oct 18 - 23
IBD, TIPP Tracking
41 / 41
41%
41% 815 LV
Oct 20 - 22
ABC News Tracking
50 / 38
50%
38% 874 LV
Oct 20 - 22
ABC News Tracking
50 / 38
50%
38% 874 LV
Oct 17 - 22
IBD, TIPP Tracking
41 / 43
41%
43% 783 LV
Oct 16 - 21
IBD, TIPP Tracking
40 / 42
40%
42% 791 LV
Oct 18 - 20
Rasmussen Reports
41 / 43
41%
43% 1,500 LV
Oct 15 - 20
IBD, TIPP Tracking
40 / 41
40%
41% 789 LV
Oct 17 - 19
Rasmussen Reports
40 / 43
40%
43% 1,500 LV
Oct 14 - 19
IBD, TIPP Tracking
40 / 41
40%
41% 779 LV
Oct 13 - 18
IBD, TIPP Tracking
40 / 41
40%
41% 782 LV
Oct 17 - 18
Quinnipiac
47 / 40
47%
40% 1,007 LV
Oct 13 - 18
IBD, TIPP
40 / 41
40%
41% 782 LV
Oct 15 - 18
Economist, YouGov
42 / 38
42%
38% 925 RV
Oct 16 - 18
Rasmussen Reports
42 / 42
42%
42% 1,500 LV
Oct 13 - 17
Reuters, Ipsos
42 / 38
42%
38% 1,190 LV
Oct 14 - 17
Bloomberg
47 / 38
47%
38% 1,006 LV
Oct 15 - 17
FOX News
45 / 39
45%
39% 912 LV
Oct 13 - 17
Rasmussen Reports
42 / 41
42%
41% 1,500 LV
Oct 10 - 16
NBC News, SM
46 / 40
46%
40% 24,804 LV
Oct 12 - 16
CBS News
47 / 38
47%
38% 1,189 LV
Oct 14 - 16
Monmouth
50 / 38
50%
38% 726 LV
Oct 12 - 16
Rasmussen Reports
43 / 41
43%
41% 1,500 LV
Oct 11 - 14
Boston Globe
46 / 36
46%
36% 845 LV
Oct 8 - 13
GW, Battleground
47 / 39
47%
39% 1,000 LV
Oct 10 - 13
NBC News, Wall St. Jrnl
48 / 37
48%
37% 905 LV
Oct 10 - 13
ABC News, Wash Post
47 / 43
47%
43% 740 LV
Oct 11 - 13
Rasmussen Reports
41 / 43
41%
43% 1,500 LV
Oct 10 - 12
FOX News
45 / 38
45%
38% 917 LV
Oct 10 - 12
Rasmussen Reports
41 / 43
41%
43% 1,500 LV
Oct 9 - 11
Rasmussen Reports
43 / 39
43%
39% 1,500 LV
Oct 6 - 10
Reuters, Ipsos
44 / 37
44%
37% 2,363 LV
Oct 8 - 10
NBC News, Wall St. Jrnl
46 / 37
46%
37% 806 LV
Oct 6 - 10
Rasmussen Reports
44 / 39
44%
39% 1,500 LV
Oct 8 - 9
NBC News, Wall St. Jrnl
46 / 35
46%
35% 447 LV
Oct 5 - 9
Rasmussen Reports
45 / 38
45%
38% 1,500 LV
Oct 3 - 9
NBC News, SM
46 / 41
46%
41% 23,329 LV
Oct 7 - 8
Economist, YouGov
44 / 38
44%
38% 971 RV
Oct 3 - 6
FOX News
44 / 42
44%
42% 896 LV
Oct 5 - 6
Quinnipiac
45 / 40
45%
40% 1,064 LV
Oct 4 - 6
Rasmussen Reports
43 / 42
43%
42% 1,500 LV
Oct 3 - 5
Rasmussen Reports
41 / 43
41%
43% 1,500 LV
Oct 2 - 4
Rasmussen Reports
41 / 42
41%
42% 1,500 LV
Oct 3 - 3
Gravis
44 / 44
44%
44% 1,690 RV
Sep 29 - Oct 3
Reuters, Ipsos
42 / 36
42%
36% 1,239 LV
Sep 29 - Oct 3
Rasmussen Reports
42 / 41
42%
41% 1,500 LV
Oct 1 - 3
Economist, YouGov
43 / 40
43%
40% 911 RV
Sep 28 - Oct 2
Rasmussen Reports
43 / 40
43%
40% 1,500 LV
Sep 26 - Oct 2
NBC News, SM
46 / 40
46%
40% 26,925 LV
Sep 28 - Oct 2
CBS News
45 / 41
45%
41% 1,217 LV
Sep 28 - Oct 2
CNN, ORC
47 / 42
47%
42% 1,213 LV
Sep 28 - Oct 2
Rasmussen Reports
43 / 40
43%
40% 1,500 LV
Sep 27 - 29
Rasmussen Reports
43 / 42
43%
42% 1,500 LV
Sep 27 - 29
FOX News
43 / 40
43%
40% 911 LV
Sep 26 - 28
Rasmussen Reports
42 / 41
42%
41% 1,500 LV
Sep 27 - 28
PPP (D)
44 / 40
44%
40% 933 LV
Sep 22 - 26
Reuters, Ipsos
42 / 38
42%
38% 1,041 LV
Sep 19 - 25
NBC News, SM
45 / 40
45%
40% 13,598 LV
Sep 22 - 25
Monmouth
46 / 42
46%
42% 729 LV
Sep 22 - 25
Quinnipiac
44 / 43
44%
43% 1,115 LV
Sep 21 - 24
Bloomberg
41 / 43
41%
43% 1,002 LV
Sep 22 - 24
Economist, YouGov
44 / 41
44%
41% 948 RV
Sep 19 - 22
ABC News, Wash Post
46 / 44
46%
44% 651 LV
Sep 20 - 21
Rasmussen Reports
39 / 44
39%
44% 1,000 LV
Sep 20 - 20
Gravis
44 / 40
44%
40% 1,560 LV
Sep 15 - 20
McClatchy, Marist
45 / 39
45%
39% 758 LV
Sep 16 - 19
NBC News, Wall St. Jrnl
43 / 37
43%
37% 922 LV
Sep 15 - 19
Reuters, Ipsos
37 / 39
37%
39% 1,111 LV
Sep 18 - 19
Economist, YouGov
40 / 38
40%
38% 936 RV
Sep 12 - 18
NBC News, SM
45 / 40
45%
40% 13,320 LV
Sep 15 - 16
Associated Press-GfK
45 / 39
45%
39% 1,251 LV
Sep 11 - 14
FOX News
41 / 40
41%
40% 867 LV
Sep 12 - 13
Rasmussen Reports
40 / 42
40%
42% 1,000 LV
Sep 9 - 13
CBS News, NY Times
42 / 42
42%
42% 1,433 LV
Sep 10 - 13
Economist, YouGov
42 / 40
42%
40% 926 RV
Sep 8 - 13
Quinnipiac
41 / 39
41%
39% 960 LV
Sep 8 - 12
Reuters, Ipsos
39 / 39
39%
39% 1,127 LV
Sep 5 - 11
NBC News, SM
42 / 40
42%
40% 16,220 RV
Sep 7 - 8
Gravis
43 / 40
43%
40% 2,348 LV
Sep 5 - 8
ABC News, Wash Post
46 / 41
46%
41% 642 LV
Sep 6 - 7
Rasmussen Reports
43 / 39
43%
39% 1,000 LV
Sep 4 - 6
Economist, YouGov
40 / 38
40%
38% 955 RV
Sep 1 - 5
Reuters, Ipsos
40 / 38
40%
38% 1,084 LV
Aug 29 - Sep 4
NBC News, SM
41 / 37
41%
37% 32,226 RV
Sep 1 - 4
CNN, ORC
43 / 45
43%
45% 786 LV
Aug 28 - Sep 1
GWU, Battleground
42 / 40
42%
40% 1,000 LV
Aug 26 - Sep 1
IBD, TIPP
39 / 39
39%
39% 861 LV
Aug 29 - 30
Rasmussen Reports
39 / 40
39%
40% 1,000 LV
Aug 28 - 30
FOX News
41 / 39
41%
39% 1,011 RV
Aug 24 - 29
USA Today, Suffolk
42 / 35
42%
35% 1,000 LV
Aug 25 - 29
Reuters, Ipsos
40 / 38
40%
38% 1,404 LV
Aug 27 - 29
Economist, YouGov
42 / 37
42%
37% 1,119 RV
Aug 26 - 28
PPP (D)
42 / 37
42%
37% 881 LV
Aug 22 - 28
NBC News, SM
41 / 37
41%
37% 24,104 RV
Aug 25 - 28
Monmouth
46 / 39
46%
39% 689 LV
Aug 20 - 24
Reuters, Ipsos
39 / 36
39%
36% 1,049 LV
Aug 18 - 24
Quinnipiac
45 / 38
45%
38% 1,498 LV
Aug 23 - 24
Rasmussen Reports
42 / 38
42%
38% 1,000 LV
Aug 22 - 23
Gravis
42 / 41
42%
41% 1,493 LV
Aug 19 - 23
Economist, YouGov
42 / 38
42%
38% 906 RV
Aug 15 - 21
NBC News, SM
43 / 38
43%
38% 17,459 RV
Aug 13 - 17
Reuters, Ipsos
39 / 35
39%
35% 1,049 LV
Aug 9 - 16
Pew Research
41 / 37
41%
37% 1,567 RV
Aug 15 - 16
Rasmussen Reports
41 / 39
41%
39% 1,000 LV
Aug 14 - 16
Economist, YouGov
41 / 35
41%
35% 911 RV
Aug 8 - 14
NBC News, SM
43 / 37
43%
37% 15,179 RV
Aug 6 - 10
Reuters, Ipsos
40 / 35
40%
35% 974 LV
Aug 9 - 10
Rasmussen Reports
43 / 40
43%
40% 1,000 LV
Aug 9 - 9
Gravis
42 / 37
42%
37% 2,832 LV
Aug 6 - 9
Economist, YouGov
42 / 36
42%
36% 911 RV
Aug 5 - 8
Bloomberg
44 / 40
44%
40% 749 LV
Aug 1 - 7
NBC News, SM
44 / 38
44%
38% 11,480 RV
Aug 4 - 7
Monmouth
50 / 37
50%
37% 683 LV
Aug 1 - 4
ABC News, Wash Post
45 / 37
45%
37% 815 RV
Jul 29 - Aug 4
IBD, TIPP
39 / 35
39%
35% 851 RV
Jul 31 - Aug 3
NBC News, Wall St. Jrnl
43 / 34
43%
34% 800 RV
Aug 1 - 3
McClatchy, Marist
45 / 31
45%
31% 983 RV
Jul 30 - Aug 3
Reuters, Ipsos
42 / 38
42%
38% 1,072 LV
Aug 1 - 2
Rasmussen Reports
44 / 40
44%
40% 1,000 LV
Jul 30 - Aug 1
Economist, YouGov
41 / 36
41%
36% 933 RV
Jul 25 - 31
NBC News, SM
42 / 38
42%
38% 12,742 RV
Jul 29 - 31
CNN, ORC
45 / 37
45%
37% 894 RV
Jul 29 - 30
PPP (D)
46 / 41
46%
41% 1,276 LV
Jul 25 - 29
Reuters, Ipsos
37 / 37
37%
37% 1,433 LV
Jul 18 - 24
NBC News, SM
39 / 41
39%
41% 12,931 RV
Jul 23 - 24
Economist, YouGov
40 / 38
40%
38% 1,057 RV
Jul 22 - 24
CNN, ORC
39 / 44
39%
44% 882 RV
Jul 16 - 20
Reuters, Ipsos
39 / 35
39%
35% 1,232 RV
Jul 11 - 17
NBC News, SM
39 / 40
39%
40% 9,436 RV
Jul 15 - 17
Economist, YouGov
40 / 37
40%
37% 925 RV
Jul 14 - 16
Monmouth
45 / 43
45%
43% 688 LV
Jul 13 - 16
CNN, ORC
42 / 37
42%
37% 872 RV
Jul 11 - 14
ABC News, Wash Post
42 / 38
42%
38% 816 RV
Jul 9 - 13
NBC News, Wall St. Jrnl
41 / 35
41%
35% 1,000 RV
Jul 7 - 11
Associated Press-GfK
40 / 36
40%
36% 837 RV
Jul 9 - 11
Economist, YouGov
40 / 37
40%
37% 932 RV
Jul 5 - 9
McClatchy, Marist
40 / 35
40%
35% 1,053 RV
Jul 2 - 6
Reuters, Ipsos
42 / 33
42%
33% 1,345 RV
Jul 2 - 4
Economist, YouGov
42 / 37
42%
37% 1,004 RV
Jun 26 - 29
USA Today, Suffolk
39 / 35
39%
35% 1,000 LV
Jun 24 - 29
IBD, TIPP
37 / 36
37%
36% 837 RV
Jun 25 - 29
Reuters, Ipsos
42 / 31
42%
31% 1,247 RV
Jun 27 - 28
PPP (D)
45 / 41
45%
41% 947 RV
Jun 21 - 27
Quinnipiac
39 / 37
39%
37% 1,610 RV
Jun 19 - 23
NBC News, Wall St. Jrnl
39 / 38
39%
38% 1,000 RV
Jun 20 - 23
ABC News, Wash Post
47 / 37
47%
37% 836 RV
Jun 18 - 22
Reuters, Ipsos
43 / 34
43%
34% 1,339 RV
Jun 16 - 19
CNN, ORC
42 / 38
42%
38% 891 RV
Jun 15 - 19
Monmouth
44 / 37
44%
37% 721 LV
Jun 11 - 15
Reuters, Ipsos
39 / 29
39%
29% 1,323 RV
Jun 8 - 8
Guardian, SurveyUSA
39 / 36
39%
36% 1,408 RV
May 24 - 30
Quinnipiac
40 / 38
40%
38% 1,561 RV
May 6 - 9
PPP (D)
42 / 38
42%
38% 1,222 RV
* RV indicates registered voters; LV indicates likely voters
Show more polls
Methodology: The FT poll tracker is based on Real Clear Politics (RCP) data and checks for new polls at least once an hour as polls are added by RCP staff.
The poll tracker is based on a four-way race, which includes Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, Republican candidate Donald Trump, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. In states where Stein is not on the ballot (Nevada , Oklahoma and South Dakota ), a three-way polling average is used. In Utah , where independent candidate Evan McMullin is polling significantly, a five-way polling average is used.
The FT’s US election poll tracker switched from two-way polling averages to four-way polling averages on September 21 to better reflect the options available to voters.
A state is considered ‘solid’ if the difference in polling averages between two candidates is above 10 per cent; ‘leaning’ if it is between 10 and 5 per cent; and a ‘toss-up’ if it falls below 5 per cent.
Most states use a ‘winner-take-all’ method of electoral college vote allocation. Maine and Nebraska , however, use an alternative method called the congressional district method in which the state is divided into congressional districts and the winner of each district takes that district’s electoral vote. The winner of the statewide vote is awarded two electoral votes.
Sources: Real Clear Politics , The Green Papers , US Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Produced by: Steve Bernard , Joanna S. Kao , Luke Kavanagh , Callum Locke , Claire Manibog , Caroline Nevitt , Tom Pearson , Ændrew Rininsland , and Martin Stabe .