Virginia presidential election polls

★ Toss-up state ★
13
of 538 electoral votes

Which candidate is leading in Virginia?

Polling average based on four-way race (%)

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 13, 2016 Nov 7 Aug Sep Oct 42.3 Trump 47.3 Clinton 42.3 Trump 47.3 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 13, 2016 Nov 7 Aug Sep Oct 42.3 Trump 47.3 Clinton 42.3 Trump 47.3 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 13, 2016 Nov 7 Aug Sep Oct 42.3 Trump 47.3 Clinton 42.3 Trump 47.3 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 13, 2016 Nov 7 Aug Sep Oct 42.3 Trump 47.3 Clinton 42.3 Trump 47.3 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 13, 2016 Nov 7 Aug Sep Oct 42.3 Trump 47.3 Clinton 42.3 Trump 47.3 Clinton

The chart above displays the two leading presidential candidates, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump. Two other candidates with significant support are Libertarian Gary Johnson, who is polling at 4.1 per cent, and Jill Stein of the Green Party, who is polling at 1.2 per cent. Read about our methodology.

Who won past presidential races in Virginia?

Virginia National
Year Margin of victory (pts) Margin of victory (pts)
2012 Obama
+3.9 Obama
+3.9
2008 Obama
+6.3 Obama
+7.3
2004 Bush (G.W.)
+8.2 Bush (G.W.)
+2.5
2000 Bush (G.W.)
+8 Bush (G.W.)
+0.5
1996 Dole
+2 Clinton (B.)
+8.5
1992 Bush (G.H.W.)
+4.4 Clinton (B.)
+5.6
1988 Bush (G.H.W.)
+20.5 Bush (G.H.W.)
+7.7
1984 Reagan
+25.2 Reagan
+18.2
1980 Reagan
+12.7 Reagan
+9.7
1976 Ford
+1.3 Carter
+2.1
1972 Nixon
+37.7 Nixon
+23.2

Key data about Virginia

Economic and demographic indicators relative to the national average (%). Darker lines indicate multiple states with similar values.

Wage growth

4.7% Virginia -2.8%min 4.4%US 6.7%max

Unemployment rate

4% Virginia 2.9%min 4.9%US 6.9%max

Poverty rate

11.2% Virginia 8.2%min 13.5%US 22%max

College educated

35.8% Virginia 18.7%min 29.3%US 53.4%max

Hispanic population

9% Virginia 1.5%min 17.6%US 48%max

African-American population

19.7% Virginia 0.6%min 13.3%US 48.3%max

All individual polls

Date Pollster Clinton / Trump (%) Clinton TrumpSample*
Nov 1 - 6 Christopher Newport Univ. 48 / 42 48% 42%1,193 LV
Nov 3 - 4 PPP (D) 48 / 43 48% 43%1,238 LV
Nov 1 - 2 Gravis 47 / 42 47% 42%1,362 RV
Nov 1 - 2 Remington Research (R) 46 / 44 46% 44%3,076 LV
Oct 29 - Nov 1 Roanoke College 45 / 38 45% 38%654 LV
Oct 23 - 30 Winthrop 44 / 39 44% 39%712 LV
Oct 27 - 30 Washington Post 48 / 42 48% 42%1,024 LV
Oct 28 - 30 Emerson 49 / 45 49% 45%800 LV
Oct 30 - 30 Remington Research (R) 47 / 43 47% 43%1,106 LV
Oct 26 - 29 Hampton University 41 / 44 41% 44%802 LV
Oct 23 - 26 Christopher Newport Univ. 46 / 39 46% 39%814 LV
Oct 20 - 26 Quinnipiac 50 / 38 50% 38%749 LV
Oct 20 - 22 Remington Research (R) 48 / 43 48% 43%1,787 LV
Oct 16 - 19 Christopher Newport Univ. 45 / 33 45% 33%834 LV
Oct 11 - 14 Christopher Newport Univ. 44 / 29 44% 29%809 LV
Oct 10 - 12 Emerson 46 / 43 46% 43%600 LV
Oct 2 - 6 Roanoke College 45 / 36 45% 36%814 LV
Sep 27 - 30 Christopher Newport Univ. 42 / 35 42% 35%892 LV
Sep 15 - 23 Christopher Newport Univ. 39 / 33 39% 33%1,003 LV
Sep 21 - 23 CBS News, YouGov 45 / 37 45% 37%1,237 LV
Sep 13 - 21 Quinnipiac 45 / 39 45% 39%659 LV
Sep 11 - 20 Roanoke College 44 / 37 44% 37%841 LV
Sep 6 - 12 Univ. of Mary Washington 40 / 37 40% 37%685 LV
Sep 9 - 11 PPP (D) 45 / 39 45% 39%878 LV
Aug 30 - Sep 1 Emerson 44 / 43 44% 43%800 LV
Aug 7 - 17 Roanoke College 48 / 32 48% 32%803 LV
Aug 9 - 16 Quinnipiac 45 / 34 45% 34%808 LV
Aug 11 - 14 Washington Post 46 / 39 46% 39%707 LV
Aug 4 - 10 NBC, WSJ, Marist 43 / 31 43% 31%897 RV
Aug 2 - 5 CBS News, YouGov 49 / 37 49% 37%1,181 LV
Jul 9 - 12 FOX News 39 / 34 39% 34%601 RV
Jul 5 - 11 NBC, WSJ, Marist 41 / 34 41% 34%876 RV
Jun 13 - 15 PPP (D) 42 / 39 42% 39%1,032 RV

* RV indicates registered voters; LV indicates likely voters

Methodology: The FT poll tracker is based on Real Clear Politics (RCP) data and checks for new polls at least once an hour as polls are added by RCP staff.

The poll tracker is based on a four-way race, which includes Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, Republican candidate Donald Trump, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. In states where Stein is not on the ballot (Nevada, Oklahoma and South Dakota), a three-way polling average is used. In Utah, where independent candidate Evan McMullin is polling significantly, a five-way polling average is used.

The FT’s US election poll tracker switched from two-way polling averages to four-way polling averages on September 21 to better reflect the options available to voters.

A state is considered ‘solid’ if the difference in polling averages between two candidates is above 10 per cent; ‘leaning’ if it is between 10 and 5 per cent; and a ‘toss-up’ if it falls below 5 per cent.

Most states use a ‘winner-take-all’ method of electoral college vote allocation. Maine and Nebraska, however, use an alternative method called the congressional district method in which the state is divided into congressional districts and the winner of each district takes that district’s electoral vote. The winner of the statewide vote is awarded two electoral votes.

Sources: Real Clear Politics, The Green Papers, US Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Produced by: Steve Bernard, Joanna S. Kao, Luke Kavanagh, Callum Locke, Claire Manibog, Caroline Nevitt, Tom Pearson, Ændrew Rininsland, and Martin Stabe.