Florida presidential election polls

★ Toss-up state ★
29
of 538 electoral votes

Which candidate is leading in Florida?

Polling average based on four-way race (%)

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 1, 2016 Nov 7 Aug Sep Oct 46.6 Trump 46.4 Clinton 46.6 Trump 46.4 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 1, 2016 Nov 7 Aug Sep Oct 46.6 Trump 46.4 Clinton 46.6 Trump 46.4 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 1, 2016 Nov 7 Aug Sep Oct 46.6 Trump 46.4 Clinton 46.6 Trump 46.4 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 1, 2016 Nov 7 Aug Sep Oct 46.6 Trump 46.4 Clinton 46.6 Trump 46.4 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 1, 2016 Nov 7 Aug Sep Oct 46.6 Trump 46.4 Clinton 46.6 Trump 46.4 Clinton

The chart above displays the two leading presidential candidates, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump. Two other candidates with significant support are Libertarian Gary Johnson, who is polling at 2.9 per cent, and Jill Stein of the Green Party, who is polling at 1 per cent. Read about our methodology.

Who won past presidential races in Florida?

Florida National
Year Margin of victory (pts) Margin of victory (pts)
2012 Obama
+0.9 Obama
+3.9
2008 Obama
+2.8 Obama
+7.3
2004 Bush (G.W.)
+5 Bush (G.W.)
+2.5
2000 Bush (G.W.)
+0 Bush (G.W.)
+0.5
1996 Clinton (B.)
+5.7 Clinton (B.)
+8.5
1992 Bush (G.H.W.)
+1.9 Clinton (B.)
+5.6
1988 Bush (G.H.W.)
+22.4 Bush (G.H.W.)
+7.7
1984 Reagan
+30.7 Reagan
+18.2
1980 Reagan
+17 Reagan
+9.7
1976 Carter
+5.3 Carter
+2.1
1972 Nixon
+44.1 Nixon
+23.2

Key data about Florida

Economic and demographic indicators relative to the national average (%). Darker lines indicate multiple states with similar values.

Wage growth

5.1% Florida -2.8%min 4.4%US 6.7%max

Unemployment rate

4.7% Florida 2.9%min 4.9%US 6.9%max

Poverty rate

15.7% Florida 8.2%min 13.5%US 22%max

College educated

26.8% Florida 18.7%min 29.3%US 53.4%max

Hispanic population

24.5% Florida 1.5%min 17.6%US 48%max

African-American population

16.8% Florida 0.6%min 13.3%US 48.3%max

All individual polls

Date Pollster Clinton / Trump (%) Clinton TrumpSample*
Nov 5 - 6 Opinion Savvy 48 / 46 48% 46%853 LV
Nov 6 - 6 Trafalgar Group (R) 46 / 50 46% 50%1,100 LV
Nov 3 - 6 Quinnipiac 46 / 45 46% 45%884 LV
Nov 2 - 4 CBS News, YouGov 45 / 45 45% 45%1,188 LV
Nov 1 - 2 Gravis 46 / 45 46% 45%1,220 RV
Nov 1 - 2 Remington Research (R) 45 / 48 45% 48%2,352 LV
Nov 1 - 2 FOX 13, Opinion Savvy 49 / 45 49% 45%603 LV
Oct 27 - Nov 1 Quinnipiac 46 / 45 46% 45%626 LV
Oct 27 - Nov 1 CNN, ORC 49 / 47 49% 47%773 LV
Oct 31 - 31 Gravis 49 / 46 49% 46%1,195 RV
Oct 27 - 31 Trafalgar Group (R) 45 / 49 45% 49%1,150 LV
Oct 30 - 30 Remington Research (R) 44 / 48 44% 48%989 LV
Oct 25 - 27 NY Times, Siena 42 / 46 42% 46%814 LV
Oct 26 - 27 Emerson 46 / 45 46% 45%500 LV
Oct 25 - 26 Gravis 48 / 47 48% 47%1,301 RV
Oct 25 - 26 NBC, WSJ, Marist 45 / 44 45% 44%779 LV
Oct 25 - 26 Dixie Strategies 42 / 46 42% 46%698 LV
Oct 20 - 25 Univ. of North Florida 43 / 39 43% 39%819 LV
Oct 21 - 24 Bloomberg 43 / 45 43% 45%953 LV
Oct 20 - 24 Bay News 9, SurveyUSA 48 / 45 48% 45%1,251 LV
Oct 21 - 23 Florida Atlantic University 46 / 43 46% 43%500 LV
Oct 20 - 22 Remington Research (R) 46 / 46 46% 46%1,646 LV
Oct 20 - 21 CBS News, YouGov 46 / 43 46% 43%1,042 LV
Oct 20 - 20 FOX 13, Opinion Savvy 49 / 45 49% 45%538 LV
Oct 10 - 16 Quinnipiac 48 / 44 48% 44%660 LV
Oct 11 - 13 Gravis 46 / 42 46% 42%1,799 RV
Oct 12 - 13 PPP (D) 46 / 42 46% 42%985 LV
Oct 10 - 11 Opinion Savvy 47 / 44 47% 44%533 LV
Oct 3 - 5 NBC, WSJ, Marist 45 / 42 45% 42%700 LV
Oct 4 - 4 Gravis 47 / 45 47% 45%821 RV
Sep 27 - Oct 4 Univ. of North Florida 41 / 38 41% 38%686 LV
Oct 2 - 4 Emerson 44 / 45 44% 45%600 LV
Sep 27 - Oct 2 Quinnipiac 46 / 41 46% 41%545 LV
Sep 28 - 29 FOX 13, Opinion Savvy 47 / 46 47% 46%619 LV
Sep 27 - 29 Mason-Dixon 46 / 42 46% 42%820 LV
Sep 20 - 22 JMC Analytics 38 / 44 38% 44%600 LV
Sep 19 - 21 Suffolk 44 / 45 44% 45%500 LV
Sep 15 - 20 FL Chamber 43 / 41 43% 41%617 LV
Sep 16 - 19 Monmouth 46 / 41 46% 41%400 LV
Sep 10 - 14 NY Times, Siena 41 / 40 41% 40%867 LV
Sep 7 - 12 CNN, ORC 44 / 47 44% 47%788 LV
Sep 7 - 9 CBS News, YouGov 44 / 42 44% 42%1,193 LV
Sep 7 - 8 JMC Analytics 42 / 46 42% 46%781 LV
Aug 29 - Sep 7 Quinnipiac 43 / 43 43% 43%761 LV
Sep 4 - 6 PPP (D) 43 / 44 43% 44%744 LV
Aug 22 - 24 Mason-Dixon 44 / 42 44% 42%625 LV
Aug 12 - 15 Monmouth 48 / 39 48% 39%402 LV
Aug 10 - 12 CBS News, YouGov 45 / 40 45% 40%1,194 LV
Aug 4 - 10 NBC, WSJ, Marist 41 / 36 41% 36%862 RV
Aug 10 - 10 FOX 13, Opinion Savvy 45 / 44 45% 44%622 LV
Jul 30 - Aug 7 Quinnipiac 43 / 43 43% 43%1,056 LV
Aug 1 - 3 Suffolk University 43 / 39 43% 39%500 LV
Jul 5 - 11 NBC, WSJ, Marist 41 / 36 41% 36%871 RV
Jun 30 - Jul 11 Quinnipiac 36 / 41 36% 41%1,015 RV
Jul 9 - 10 JMC Analytics 42 / 47 42% 47%700 LV
Jun 25 - 27 Bay News 9, SurveyUSA 46 / 42 46% 42%1,678 LV
Jun 21 - 24 CBS News, YouGov 44 / 41 44% 41%1,192 LV
Jun 8 - 19 Quinnipiac 42 / 36 42% 36%975 RV
Jun 2 - 5 PPP (D) 40 / 41 40% 41%737 RV

* RV indicates registered voters; LV indicates likely voters

Methodology: The FT poll tracker is based on Real Clear Politics (RCP) data and checks for new polls at least once an hour as polls are added by RCP staff.

The poll tracker is based on a four-way race, which includes Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, Republican candidate Donald Trump, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. In states where Stein is not on the ballot (Nevada, Oklahoma and South Dakota), a three-way polling average is used. In Utah, where independent candidate Evan McMullin is polling significantly, a five-way polling average is used.

The FT’s US election poll tracker switched from two-way polling averages to four-way polling averages on September 21 to better reflect the options available to voters.

A state is considered ‘solid’ if the difference in polling averages between two candidates is above 10 per cent; ‘leaning’ if it is between 10 and 5 per cent; and a ‘toss-up’ if it falls below 5 per cent.

Most states use a ‘winner-take-all’ method of electoral college vote allocation. Maine and Nebraska, however, use an alternative method called the congressional district method in which the state is divided into congressional districts and the winner of each district takes that district’s electoral vote. The winner of the statewide vote is awarded two electoral votes.

Sources: Real Clear Politics, The Green Papers, US Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Produced by: Steve Bernard, Joanna S. Kao, Luke Kavanagh, Callum Locke, Claire Manibog, Caroline Nevitt, Tom Pearson, Ændrew Rininsland, and Martin Stabe.