Idaho presidential election polls

★ Strongly Republican ★
of 538 electoral votes

Who won past presidential races in Idaho?

Idaho National
Year Margin of victory (pts) Margin of victory (pts)
2012 Romney
+31.9 Obama
2008 McCain
+25.4 Obama
2004 Bush (G.W.)
+38.1 Bush (G.W.)
2000 Bush (G.W.)
+39.5 Bush (G.W.)
1996 Dole
+18.5 Clinton (B.)
1992 Bush (G.H.W.)
+13.6 Clinton (B.)
1988 Bush (G.H.W.)
+26.1 Bush (G.H.W.)
1984 Reagan
+46 Reagan
1980 Reagan
+41.3 Reagan
1976 Ford
+22.6 Carter
1972 Nixon
+38.2 Nixon

Key data about Idaho

Economic and demographic indicators relative to the national average (%). Darker lines indicate multiple states with similar values.

Wage growth

3.6% Idaho -2.8%min 4.4%US 6.7%max

Unemployment rate

3.8% Idaho 2.9%min 4.9%US 6.9%max

Poverty rate

15.1% Idaho 8.2%min 13.5%US 22%max

College educated

25.4% Idaho 18.7%min 29.3%US 53.4%max

Hispanic population

12.2% Idaho 1.5%min 17.6%US 48%max

African-American population

0.8% Idaho 0.6%min 13.3%US 48.3%max

All individual polls

Date Pollster Clinton / Trump (%) Clinton TrumpSample*
Oct 21 - 23 Emerson 23 / 52 23% 52%1,023 LV
Sep 28 - Oct 9 Idaho Politics, Dan Jones 30 / 40 30% 40%608 LV
Aug 18 - 31 Idaho Politics, Dan Jones 23 / 44 23% 44%602 LV
Jul 5 - 16 Idaho Politics, Dan Jones 23 / 44 23% 44%601 LV

* RV indicates registered voters; LV indicates likely voters

Methodology: The FT poll tracker is based on Real Clear Politics (RCP) data and checks for new polls at least once an hour as polls are added by RCP staff.

The poll tracker is based on a four-way race, which includes Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, Republican candidate Donald Trump, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. In states where Stein is not on the ballot (Nevada, Oklahoma and South Dakota), a three-way polling average is used. In Utah, where independent candidate Evan McMullin is polling significantly, a five-way polling average is used.

The FT’s US election poll tracker switched from two-way polling averages to four-way polling averages on September 21 to better reflect the options available to voters.

A state is considered ‘solid’ if the difference in polling averages between two candidates is above 10 per cent; ‘leaning’ if it is between 10 and 5 per cent; and a ‘toss-up’ if it falls below 5 per cent.

Most states use a ‘winner-take-all’ method of electoral college vote allocation. Maine and Nebraska, however, use an alternative method called the congressional district method in which the state is divided into congressional districts and the winner of each district takes that district’s electoral vote. The winner of the statewide vote is awarded two electoral votes.

Sources: Real Clear Politics, The Green Papers, US Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Produced by: Steve Bernard, Joanna S. Kao, Luke Kavanagh, Callum Locke, Claire Manibog, Caroline Nevitt, Tom Pearson, Ændrew Rininsland, and Martin Stabe.