Which candidate is leading in Wisconsin?
Polling average based on four-way race (%)
The chart above displays the two leading presidential candidates, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump. Two other candidates with significant support are Libertarian Gary Johnson, who is polling at 5.8 per cent, and Jill Stein of the Green Party, who is polling at 2 per cent. Read about our methodology.
Who won past presidential races in Wisconsin?
|Year||Margin of victory (pts)||Margin of victory (pts)|
|1996||Clinton (B.)||+10.3||Clinton (B.)||+8.5|
|1992||Clinton (B.)||+4.4||Clinton (B.)||+5.6|
Key data about Wisconsin
Economic and demographic indicators relative to the national average (%). Darker lines indicate multiple states with similar values.
All individual polls
|Date||Pollster||Clinton / Trump (%)||Clinton||Trump||Sample*|
|Nov 1 - 2||Remington Research (R)||49 / 41||49%||41%||2,720 LV|
|Oct 31 - Nov 1||Loras||44 / 38||44%||38%||500 LV|
|Oct 26 - 31||Marquette||46 / 40||46%||40%||1,225 LV|
|Oct 30 - 30||Remington Research (R)||46 / 42||46%||42%||1,172 LV|
|Oct 26 - 27||Emerson||48 / 42||48%||42%||400 LV|
|Oct 20 - 22||Remington Research (R)||46 / 41||46%||41%||1,795 LV|
|Oct 15 - 18||Monmouth||47 / 40||47%||40%||403 LV|
|Oct 13 - 16||WPR, St. Norbert||47 / 39||47%||39%||644 LV|
|Oct 6 - 9||Marquette||44 / 37||44%||37%||878 LV|
|Oct 5 - 7||CBS News, YouGov||43 / 39||43%||39%||993 LV|
|Oct 4 - 5||Loras||43 / 35||43%||35%||500 LV|
|Oct 4 - 4||Gravis||48 / 40||48%||40%||1,102 RV|
|Sep 19 - 20||Emerson||45 / 38||45%||38%||700 LV|
|Sep 15 - 18||Marquette||41 / 38||41%||38%||677 LV|
|Aug 27 - 30||Monmouth||43 / 38||43%||38%||404 LV|
|Aug 25 - 28||Marquette||41 / 38||41%||38%||650 LV|
|Aug 4 - 7||Marquette||47 / 34||47%||34%||683 LV|
|Jul 7 - 10||Marquette||43 / 37||43%||37%||665 LV|
|Jun 21 - 24||CBS News, YouGov||41 / 36||41%||36%||993 LV|
* RV indicates registered voters; LV indicates likely voters
Methodology: The FT poll tracker is based on Real Clear Politics (RCP) data and checks for new polls at least once an hour as polls are added by RCP staff.
The poll tracker is based on a four-way race, which includes Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, Republican candidate Donald Trump, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. In states where Stein is not on the ballot (Nevada, Oklahoma and South Dakota), a three-way polling average is used. In Utah, where independent candidate Evan McMullin is polling significantly, a five-way polling average is used.
The FT’s US election poll tracker switched from two-way polling averages to four-way polling averages on September 21 to better reflect the options available to voters.
A state is considered ‘solid’ if the difference in polling averages between two candidates is above 10 per cent; ‘leaning’ if it is between 10 and 5 per cent; and a ‘toss-up’ if it falls below 5 per cent.
Most states use a ‘winner-take-all’ method of electoral college vote allocation. Maine and Nebraska, however, use an alternative method called the congressional district method in which the state is divided into congressional districts and the winner of each district takes that district’s electoral vote. The winner of the statewide vote is awarded two electoral votes.