Pennsylvania presidential election polls

★ Toss-up state ★
20
of 538 electoral votes

Which candidate is leading in Pennsylvania?

Polling average based on four-way race (%)

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 1, 2016 Nov 7 Aug Sep Oct 44.3 Trump 46.2 Clinton 44.3 Trump 46.2 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 1, 2016 Nov 7 Aug Sep Oct 44.3 Trump 46.2 Clinton 44.3 Trump 46.2 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 1, 2016 Nov 7 Aug Sep Oct 44.3 Trump 46.2 Clinton 44.3 Trump 46.2 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 1, 2016 Nov 7 Aug Sep Oct 44.3 Trump 46.2 Clinton 44.3 Trump 46.2 Clinton
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 1, 2016 Nov 7 Aug Sep Oct 44.3 Trump 46.2 Clinton 44.3 Trump 46.2 Clinton

The chart above displays the two leading presidential candidates, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump. Two other candidates with significant support are Libertarian Gary Johnson, who is polling at 3 per cent, and Jill Stein of the Green Party, who is polling at 1.5 per cent. Read about our methodology.

Who won past presidential races in Pennsylvania?

Pennsylvania National
Year Margin of victory (pts) Margin of victory (pts)
2012 Obama
+5.4 Obama
+3.9
2008 Obama
+10.3 Obama
+7.3
2004 Kerry
+2.5 Bush (G.W.)
+2.5
2000 Gore
+4.2 Bush (G.W.)
+0.5
1996 Clinton (B.)
+9.2 Clinton (B.)
+8.5
1992 Clinton (B.)
+9 Clinton (B.)
+5.6
1988 Bush (G.H.W.)
+2.3 Bush (G.H.W.)
+7.7
1984 Reagan
+7.4 Reagan
+18.2
1980 Reagan
+7.1 Reagan
+9.7
1976 Carter
+2.7 Carter
+2.1
1972 Nixon
+20 Nixon
+23.2

Key data about Pennsylvania

Economic and demographic indicators relative to the national average (%). Darker lines indicate multiple states with similar values.

Wage growth

4.2% Pennsylvania -2.8%min 4.4%US 6.7%max

Unemployment rate

5.7% Pennsylvania 2.9%min 4.9%US 6.9%max

Poverty rate

13.2% Pennsylvania 8.2%min 13.5%US 22%max

College educated

28.1% Pennsylvania 18.7%min 29.3%US 53.4%max

Hispanic population

6.8% Pennsylvania 1.5%min 17.6%US 48%max

African-American population

11.7% Pennsylvania 0.6%min 13.3%US 48.3%max

All individual polls

Date Pollster Clinton / Trump (%) Clinton TrumpSample*
Nov 3 - 5 Trafalgar Group (R) 47 / 48 47% 48%1,300 LV
Oct 30 - Nov 4 Morning Call 44 / 40 44% 40%405 LV
Nov 2 - 3 Harper (R) 46 / 46 46% 46%504 LV
Nov 1 - 2 Gravis 47 / 45 47% 45%1,016 RV
Oct 27 - Nov 1 Quinnipiac 48 / 43 48% 43%612 LV
Oct 31 - Nov 1 Susquehanna 45 / 43 45% 43%681 LV
Oct 29 - Nov 1 Monmouth 48 / 44 48% 44%403 LV
Oct 27 - Nov 1 CNN, ORC 48 / 44 48% 44%799 LV
Oct 31 - 31 Gravis 47 / 46 47% 46%2,606 RV
Oct 26 - 30 Franklin & Marshall 49 / 38 49% 38%652 LV
Oct 25 - 30 Gravis 47 / 44 47% 44%3,217 RV
Oct 30 - 30 Remington Research (R) 45 / 43 45% 43%1,249 LV
Oct 26 - 28 CBS News, YouGov 48 / 40 48% 40%1,091 LV
Oct 20 - 26 Morning Call 45 / 39 45% 39%420 LV
Oct 25 - 26 Emerson 48 / 43 48% 43%550 LV
Oct 23 - 25 NY Times, Siena 46 / 39 46% 39%824 LV
Oct 20 - 22 Remington Research (R) 45 / 42 45% 42%1,997 LV
Oct 17 - 19 Emerson 45 / 41 45% 41%800 LV
Oct 10 - 16 Quinnipiac 47 / 41 47% 41%660 LV
Oct 7 - 11 Bloomberg 48 / 39 48% 39%806 LV
Oct 4 - 9 Susquehanna 44 / 40 44% 40%764 RV
Oct 5 - 7 CBS News, YouGov 48 / 40 48% 40%997 LV
Oct 3 - 6 NBC, WSJ, Marist 49 / 37 49% 37%709 LV
Sep 30 - Oct 3 Monmouth 50 / 40 50% 40%402 LV
Sep 28 - Oct 2 Franklin & Marshall 47 / 38 47% 38%496 LV
Sep 27 - Oct 2 Quinnipiac 45 / 41 45% 41%535 LV
Sep 20 - 25 CNN, ORC 45 / 44 45% 44%771 LV
Sep 12 - 23 Mercyhurst 42 / 41 42% 41%420 LV
Sep 23 - 23 Gravis 46 / 43 46% 43%949 LV
Sep 19 - 23 Morning Call 40 / 38 40% 38%486 LV
Sep 21 - 22 Harper (R) 45 / 43 45% 43%500 LV
Sep 12 - 16 Morning Call 40 / 32 40% 32%405 LV
Aug 29 - Sep 7 Quinnipiac 44 / 39 44% 39%778 LV
Aug 30 - Sep 2 CBS News, YouGov 45 / 37 45% 37%1,091 LV
Aug 25 - 29 Franklin & Marshall 45 / 40 45% 40%496 LV
Aug 26 - 29 Monmouth 48 / 40 48% 40%402 LV
Aug 25 - 28 Emerson 46 / 43 46% 43%800 LV
Aug 3 - 7 NBC, WSJ, Marist 45 / 36 45% 36%834 RV
Jul 30 - Aug 7 Quinnipiac 48 / 39 48% 39%815 LV
Jul 31 - Aug 4 Susquehanna 46 / 37 46% 37%772 LV
Jul 29 - Aug 2 Franklin & Marshall 47 / 34 47% 34%661 RV
Jul 29 - 31 PPP (D) 45 / 42 45% 42%1,505 LV
Jul 25 - 27 Suffolk University 46 / 37 46% 37%500 LV
Jun 30 - Jul 11 Quinnipiac 34 / 40 34% 40%982 RV
Jul 5 - 10 NBC, WSJ, Marist 43 / 35 43% 35%829 RV
Jun 8 - 19 Quinnipiac 39 / 36 39% 36%950 RV
Jun 3 - 5 PPP (D) 41 / 40 41% 40%1,106 RV

* RV indicates registered voters; LV indicates likely voters

Methodology: The FT poll tracker is based on Real Clear Politics (RCP) data and checks for new polls at least once an hour as polls are added by RCP staff.

The poll tracker is based on a four-way race, which includes Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, Republican candidate Donald Trump, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. In states where Stein is not on the ballot (Nevada, Oklahoma and South Dakota), a three-way polling average is used. In Utah, where independent candidate Evan McMullin is polling significantly, a five-way polling average is used.

The FT’s US election poll tracker switched from two-way polling averages to four-way polling averages on September 21 to better reflect the options available to voters.

A state is considered ‘solid’ if the difference in polling averages between two candidates is above 10 per cent; ‘leaning’ if it is between 10 and 5 per cent; and a ‘toss-up’ if it falls below 5 per cent.

Most states use a ‘winner-take-all’ method of electoral college vote allocation. Maine and Nebraska, however, use an alternative method called the congressional district method in which the state is divided into congressional districts and the winner of each district takes that district’s electoral vote. The winner of the statewide vote is awarded two electoral votes.

Sources: Real Clear Politics, The Green Papers, US Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Produced by: Steve Bernard, Joanna S. Kao, Luke Kavanagh, Callum Locke, Claire Manibog, Caroline Nevitt, Tom Pearson, Ændrew Rininsland, and Martin Stabe.